***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2015.-15.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 12.3 11.5 10.8 -0.1 49.4 49.3 9.7 11.6 13.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 11.1 10.3 10.7 -0.1 49.0 49.6 8.6 10.4 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 12.6 11.7 10.8 -0.1 49.0 48.9 9.9 11.8 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 3.6 5.5 8.2 -0.3 46.6 46.6 4.0 5.8 7.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 12.8 11.7 8.8 -0.2 47.6 47.4 10.1 12.0 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 11.8 11.4 8.1 0.2 51.6 51.1 9.2 11.2 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 10.9 10.2 10.6 -0.1 48.8 49.5 8.5 10.3 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 4.9 4.3 8.3 0.0 49.8 49.5 2.8 4.3 5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 10.1 12.1 9.6 -0.2 48.2 48.0 10.4 12.3 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 12.3 11.4 8.9 -0.1 49.1 48.8 9.8 11.5 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 13.0 12.0 8.8 -0.1 49.0 48.7 10.2 12.2 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.6 11.8 8.7 0.0 50.1 49.9 9.9 11.8 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 12.7 12.0 8.5 0.1 50.9 50.7 10.0 11.9 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.1 12.3 10.2 0.0 50.4 50.5 10.2 12.2 14.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 10.5 9.5 8.4 -0.3 46.6 46.7 8.3 9.8 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 13.3 12.4 8.5 -0.1 49.4 49.2 10.5 12.5 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 10.5 9.7 10.4 -0.2 48.2 49.5 8.2 9.9 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.2 10.5 8.9 0.0 50.3 50.1 8.8 10.5 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 11.7 10.9 10.9 0.0 49.4 49.8 9.1 11.0 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.1 7.3 0.1 51.4 51.2 7.2 9.0 10.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 9.7 11.7 10.2 -0.2 48.2 48.0 10.0 11.9 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.3 10.4 10.5 -0.1 48.4 49.7 8.8 10.6 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 11.7 11.0 11.0 0.0 50.1 50.2 9.1 11.0 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.4 12.6 10.1 0.0 50.1 49.8 10.6 12.6 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.6 10.7 9.2 -0.1 48.8 48.5 8.9 10.8 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.6 8.5 0.3 53.6 53.1 9.6 11.2 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.3 11.5 10.1 0.0 50.0 49.7 9.6 11.5 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 10.6 9.8 8.3 -0.3 46.7 46.8 8.8 10.0 11.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.5 8.4 0.1 51.4 51.2 6.6 8.4 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 11.3 10.5 10.8 -0.1 49.2 49.5 8.8 10.6 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------