***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2015.-22.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 12.8 11.7 11.3 -0.6 40.9 42.4 11.1 12.4 13.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 12.2 11.2 11.4 -0.5 41.8 43.5 10.6 11.8 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 13.1 12.1 11.4 -0.6 41.3 42.7 11.4 12.7 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.0 5.3 8.3 -1.2 32.5 35.0 5.3 6.5 7.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 13.2 11.8 9.4 -0.8 37.6 39.4 11.4 12.6 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 12.5 11.4 8.7 -0.6 41.4 42.7 10.8 12.1 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 12.0 11.0 11.3 -0.5 41.7 43.4 10.4 11.6 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 5.3 4.7 9.1 -0.3 45.5 46.2 4.0 5.0 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 13.5 12.3 10.4 -0.6 40.3 41.8 11.8 13.1 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 12.9 12.0 9.8 -0.4 43.5 44.5 11.2 12.5 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 13.4 12.1 9.5 -0.7 39.7 41.2 11.6 12.9 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 13.1 12.1 9.5 -0.5 43.1 44.2 11.3 12.6 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 13.3 12.3 9.4 -0.4 43.3 44.3 11.4 12.8 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 13.6 12.7 11.1 -0.3 45.6 46.4 11.7 13.1 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 10.0 10.2 8.8 -1.2 31.4 34.2 10.3 11.3 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 13.9 12.6 9.2 -0.7 39.3 40.9 12.0 13.4 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 11.5 10.6 11.0 -0.6 40.6 42.8 10.1 11.2 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 11.9 11.4 9.9 -0.1 48.0 48.4 10.3 11.5 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 12.5 11.5 11.5 -0.5 42.5 44.0 10.8 12.1 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 10.1 9.8 8.5 0.2 52.8 52.6 8.4 9.6 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 13.2 12.0 10.9 -0.7 39.7 41.2 11.5 12.8 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 12.2 11.2 11.1 -0.6 41.2 43.3 10.6 11.8 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 12.6 11.7 11.7 -0.4 44.0 45.1 10.9 12.2 13.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 13.7 12.9 10.9 -0.3 45.4 46.2 11.9 13.3 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 12.2 11.0 9.8 -0.7 38.9 40.5 10.6 11.8 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 12.7 12.1 9.3 -0.2 47.0 47.6 11.1 12.3 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 12.9 11.9 10.8 -0.5 41.9 43.3 11.2 12.5 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 10.3 10.5 8.6 -1.3 31.8 34.4 10.6 11.6 12.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 9.4 9.1 9.5 0.1 52.1 51.9 7.7 9.0 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 12.2 11.2 11.5 -0.5 41.9 43.5 10.6 11.8 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------