***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2015.-01.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 1.9 3.6 4.0 48.4 44.1 30.9 2.2 4.5 7.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 78 22 0 100 1.4 3.0 4.0 45.9 41.8 26.4 2.0 4.1 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 2.1 4.4 4.5 52.8 45.8 33.3 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 2.9 5.9 5.8 64.7 51.9 39.7 3.0 5.5 8.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 2.4 4.2 5.0 49.2 44.0 32.2 2.7 5.1 8.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 1.6 2.9 4.2 42.7 42.1 29.3 2.0 3.8 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 80 20 0 100 1.8 3.4 3.7 41.5 39.6 24.7 2.7 4.8 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 2.8 5.1 5.9 58.3 48.2 36.9 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 2.5 4.4 4.7 50.8 45.2 32.0 2.9 5.1 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 3.2 5.5 5.3 52.4 45.1 33.6 3.6 6.4 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 2.5 4.2 4.3 48.4 44.6 29.7 2.8 5.0 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 2.6 4.4 5.1 56.5 48.2 35.6 2.5 4.7 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 2.5 4.2 5.4 54.6 47.6 37.6 2.4 4.5 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 3.0 6.2 6.4 57.7 46.9 36.3 3.5 6.9 11.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 1.6 4.3 6.7 75.0 55.9 41.2 1.5 3.5 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 1.9 3.5 5.0 54.2 48.0 36.1 1.9 3.8 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 2.1 4.1 4.2 45.5 42.4 26.4 2.8 5.6 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 3.0 4.9 6.3 55.5 45.1 35.7 3.1 5.9 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 78 22 0 100 1.9 4.1 4.3 48.9 42.7 28.1 2.8 5.4 9.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 2.9 4.3 7.6 54.6 43.4 34.6 2.8 5.5 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 1.8 4.0 4.9 56.4 47.5 35.3 2.2 4.5 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 75 25 0 100 2.2 4.3 5.0 49.6 43.0 28.3 2.9 5.7 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 76 24 0 100 1.9 4.1 4.9 51.9 43.8 30.5 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 2.6 5.7 5.9 58.2 47.3 37.1 3.1 6.2 10.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 2.2 3.4 4.6 46.9 42.8 33.8 2.4 4.3 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 5.4 5.1 7.6 69.3 54.4 46.2 2.2 4.4 7.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 1.7 2.7 3.9 42.4 40.3 29.2 1.9 3.9 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 2.3 4.9 6.0 67.2 53.0 39.7 2.4 4.5 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 5.2 7.7 6.7 54.3 43.4 34.4 5.4 9.4 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 80 20 0 100 1.2 2.7 3.9 45.5 41.3 26.8 1.9 4.0 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------