***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2015.-08.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 4.5 13.7 10.5 100.9 65.0 48.7 4.6 8.6 14.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 3.8 12.5 9.9 100.1 64.3 48.3 3.9 7.7 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 4.2 13.0 10.9 100.0 64.3 49.1 4.2 8.1 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 3.6 13.7 13.5 104.6 65.9 49.4 3.1 7.3 13.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.9 11.9 12.6 99.5 64.6 49.3 3.7 7.3 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.4 9.3 14.1 99.2 64.4 50.6 3.1 5.9 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 3.2 10.4 9.8 99.2 64.1 47.9 3.1 6.4 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 16.7 20.9 14.2 103.8 65.5 52.5 5.0 11.3 21.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.8 10.7 12.7 99.8 64.4 49.3 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.2 12.1 13.7 100.7 64.4 51.2 3.9 7.5 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.2 10.7 11.7 98.9 64.3 47.8 3.0 6.4 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 4.8 14.4 12.9 107.5 66.8 51.4 4.4 8.4 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 4.3 13.5 13.5 103.3 66.0 51.9 3.8 7.7 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 6.8 18.1 13.3 95.6 62.2 50.6 6.8 12.4 20.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 2.8 12.1 16.2 120.6 70.6 53.3 2.4 5.5 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.4 11.8 12.5 103.1 65.6 50.2 3.2 6.6 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 3.3 11.2 9.6 101.2 64.8 48.4 3.0 6.6 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.5 14.7 15.0 98.3 63.4 51.9 5.0 9.6 15.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 3.7 12.5 10.1 98.7 63.7 48.2 3.9 7.8 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.1 15.4 17.6 93.6 61.9 51.8 5.5 10.4 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 3.6 10.7 11.6 99.9 64.2 48.9 3.3 6.7 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 3.4 10.9 10.1 99.9 64.0 48.0 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 4.9 13.8 10.7 95.6 62.6 48.5 4.7 9.2 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.6 12.9 13.3 97.5 63.1 50.9 4.3 8.4 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 4.0 11.8 11.4 92.5 61.7 46.7 3.9 7.8 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 8.9 11.9 13.7 111.5 68.1 53.0 2.9 6.2 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 3.7 11.4 10.7 93.3 62.0 46.6 3.6 7.4 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.8 10.8 15.1 113.8 68.6 51.7 2.4 5.4 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 8.1 20.5 16.0 96.6 62.8 52.1 7.6 13.9 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 3.5 11.3 10.2 100.0 64.2 48.3 3.6 7.1 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------