***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2015.-15.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 4.1 12.9 11.1 126.6 72.0 53.2 3.9 6.9 10.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.2 15.0 11.2 129.1 72.7 53.8 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.8 18.4 11.5 133.7 73.8 55.0 4.3 8.5 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 5.4 20.2 14.3 131.7 73.4 54.6 4.8 9.3 15.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 4.7 16.6 12.7 128.8 72.5 53.0 4.4 8.2 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 4.3 17.6 16.0 148.4 77.2 58.7 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 4.5 14.2 10.7 123.5 71.2 53.1 4.1 7.5 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 5.8 20.6 14.2 133.0 73.6 54.3 5.5 10.1 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 4.0 15.0 12.7 130.3 72.9 53.8 3.7 7.2 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 3.8 17.3 13.7 131.5 73.1 54.1 3.5 7.5 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.9 17.2 12.3 135.5 74.2 52.9 3.4 7.2 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 4.6 18.2 13.2 144.7 76.4 55.6 4.2 8.0 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 16.7 20.4 14.5 149.7 77.5 58.0 4.0 8.0 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.6 20.4 13.8 133.0 73.6 56.1 5.2 9.8 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 9.5 17.5 17.3 147.0 76.8 57.1 3.2 6.7 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.9 16.7 13.1 143.7 76.2 55.8 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 4.3 15.1 10.7 120.8 70.6 52.9 3.9 7.7 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 4.0 15.1 14.4 126.7 71.8 54.8 4.0 7.6 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 4.5 16.3 11.5 133.8 73.9 54.7 4.0 7.7 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 5.4 18.4 16.9 116.4 69.2 53.7 4.9 9.6 16.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.5 16.9 11.9 130.7 73.1 54.9 4.1 8.0 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 4.4 17.7 11.5 123.9 71.6 53.2 3.9 8.2 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 9.8 15.5 11.9 136.7 74.6 55.5 4.0 7.3 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.4 17.2 13.1 131.5 73.2 55.5 4.2 8.1 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.8 12.7 12.8 115.4 69.1 52.2 3.4 6.7 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.8 20.5 14.2 152.6 78.0 58.8 3.7 7.7 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.4 11.6 12.0 118.3 69.7 51.9 3.0 6.0 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 3.9 18.9 15.7 145.2 76.4 56.4 3.2 7.1 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 6.3 21.6 15.1 122.7 70.7 54.8 5.9 11.3 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.4 15.0 11.2 130.7 73.1 54.0 4.2 7.7 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------