***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2015.-22.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 5.1 17.4 11.6 138.4 75.0 55.1 5.0 8.6 13.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.7 16.8 11.5 122.9 71.3 54.3 4.3 8.4 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 6.3 20.4 11.6 132.1 73.4 53.9 6.3 10.9 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 22.8 28.1 14.2 150.1 77.5 57.4 6.4 11.9 19.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 5.4 22.9 12.7 138.9 75.0 55.2 5.3 10.1 17.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 6.9 25.0 12.7 128.9 73.0 53.5 6.2 11.9 20.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 5.4 15.7 11.3 121.3 71.0 54.3 5.2 8.8 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 9.1 31.9 12.2 118.3 69.9 53.4 8.2 16.2 27.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 19.7 21.0 12.6 133.0 73.6 54.2 4.5 9.3 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 6.1 22.7 12.8 126.0 71.8 54.3 6.0 11.3 18.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 6.4 25.5 11.4 133.9 73.9 54.8 6.0 11.6 19.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 6.0 26.9 11.0 125.3 71.8 53.8 4.8 11.3 21.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 6.4 26.0 12.0 127.2 72.4 54.6 5.4 11.6 20.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 8.2 26.1 13.3 120.6 70.3 53.1 8.4 14.7 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 6.1 34.8 15.5 158.2 79.0 57.9 5.1 11.3 21.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 6.2 25.4 11.5 134.1 74.0 54.8 5.6 11.2 19.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 16.6 17.3 11.8 126.4 72.3 56.1 5.6 9.5 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 6.3 25.4 14.1 123.4 71.1 54.4 6.1 12.3 21.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 5.6 19.0 11.5 124.4 71.5 53.9 5.2 9.8 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 6.7 25.8 16.5 110.1 67.9 53.7 5.8 13.0 24.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 19.0 20.9 12.2 137.2 74.6 54.8 5.6 10.1 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.7 18.8 12.2 128.3 72.5 55.8 5.2 9.6 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 5.7 18.2 11.6 125.0 71.6 53.6 5.4 9.7 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 5.8 21.9 13.0 125.7 71.7 53.8 5.8 11.0 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 15.6 18.2 14.1 143.4 76.1 57.7 4.4 8.1 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 6.6 28.7 12.8 132.8 74.0 55.0 6.0 12.5 21.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 4.6 18.0 12.9 137.8 74.9 56.4 4.4 8.2 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 5.1 25.2 14.0 148.9 77.2 56.4 4.4 9.4 16.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 9.9 35.2 15.2 119.4 70.1 54.1 9.6 18.4 31.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 5.2 16.6 11.4 125.1 71.8 53.6 4.8 8.8 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------