***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2015.-22.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 44.5 47.0 37.2 103.9 61.8 53.5 30.0 39.4 49.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 44.4 45.8 36.6 100.0 59.6 51.5 26.8 38.4 51.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 51.0 53.6 38.5 104.6 61.6 53.1 33.5 44.9 57.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 57.8 64.8 47.7 113.2 65.9 56.7 38.6 51.1 64.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 50.4 51.9 43.1 102.7 60.3 52.1 35.7 45.3 56.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 45.8 49.0 47.0 105.3 61.8 53.6 29.2 40.2 52.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 41.0 40.8 35.5 96.7 57.9 50.4 23.5 34.7 47.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 74.1 77.5 46.5 103.8 60.3 52.8 49.2 65.8 84.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 46.5 48.6 42.6 103.7 60.9 52.7 32.4 41.8 52.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 53.8 55.4 45.5 102.6 59.8 52.0 36.8 48.0 60.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 51.1 53.2 39.7 103.6 60.7 52.3 33.6 45.0 57.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 55.2 60.5 42.2 108.4 63.3 54.7 35.0 48.1 63.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 54.0 59.5 45.3 108.0 63.1 54.6 35.1 47.8 62.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 69.3 69.3 46.8 100.9 58.6 50.5 48.5 62.1 76.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 61.6 65.1 55.8 126.8 72.0 61.4 27.9 41.3 57.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 48.3 53.0 42.2 108.0 63.2 54.3 29.3 41.7 55.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 46.1 46.2 36.3 98.2 58.6 50.9 27.1 39.2 53.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 58.8 59.7 49.8 100.9 58.4 51.1 43.0 53.7 65.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 48.8 50.3 37.4 101.5 60.0 51.4 29.9 42.0 56.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 67.5 63.7 58.6 94.2 53.5 48.2 46.4 60.4 75.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 47.4 50.6 40.6 106.2 62.6 54.2 32.9 42.5 53.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 49.1 49.7 38.7 99.6 58.6 50.1 29.7 42.2 57.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 49.5 50.5 39.1 101.4 59.4 50.5 31.9 43.3 56.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 55.8 57.1 45.3 102.7 59.9 51.9 37.5 49.4 62.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 42.8 44.2 42.8 99.6 58.9 51.9 27.1 37.5 50.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 51.9 61.6 48.4 114.6 66.6 58.6 34.6 46.8 60.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 42.2 42.6 39.5 98.3 58.4 51.2 27.5 37.1 48.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 46.9 55.9 50.8 119.7 68.8 58.6 29.9 40.9 53.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 85.1 84.1 53.1 98.2 56.6 50.0 65.8 78.9 92.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 42.9 44.2 36.6 100.9 59.7 51.6 26.8 37.2 49.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------