***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2020.-01.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 96 4 100 15.1 15.7 15.6 0.6 56.1 55.8 13.1 15.0 16.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 95 5 100 14.9 15.1 15.5 0.3 53.6 53.4 13.1 14.7 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 95 5 100 15.6 15.4 15.4 -0.1 49.4 49.4 13.6 15.5 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 97 3 100 9.1 9.4 12.3 0.3 53.1 52.9 6.7 9.0 11.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 94 6 100 15.7 15.2 13.6 -0.2 47.8 47.8 13.6 15.5 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 91 9 100 15.1 14.3 12.3 -0.4 46.2 46.3 12.8 14.8 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 93 7 100 14.6 15.0 15.6 0.6 56.8 56.5 12.7 14.4 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 7.8 6.3 11.8 -1.2 38.4 38.7 5.7 7.3 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 95 5 100 15.8 15.2 14.4 -0.4 46.1 46.2 13.8 15.6 17.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 89 11 100 15.7 14.4 12.7 -0.9 41.5 41.7 13.5 15.3 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 92 8 100 15.9 15.0 13.9 -0.6 43.8 44.0 13.7 15.6 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 15.6 14.0 12.6 -1.0 40.1 40.4 13.2 15.1 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 16.0 14.7 13.5 -0.9 41.5 41.8 13.7 15.6 17.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 16.3 14.8 14.2 -0.9 41.7 42.0 13.7 15.8 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 95 5 100 14.5 15.1 14.8 0.7 58.0 57.8 12.8 14.4 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 92 8 100 16.5 15.7 13.4 -0.5 44.7 44.8 14.4 16.3 18.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 94 6 100 14.1 14.5 15.2 0.6 56.4 56.1 12.3 13.9 15.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 14.9 13.2 12.1 -1.2 39.1 39.4 12.5 14.4 16.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 95 5 100 15.1 15.0 15.4 0.0 50.5 50.5 13.1 14.9 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.0 10.6 10.3 -1.5 34.9 35.5 10.4 12.3 14.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 95 5 100 15.6 15.4 15.3 0.0 49.6 49.6 13.7 15.4 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 94 6 100 15.0 15.2 15.2 0.3 53.7 53.5 13.0 14.8 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 93 7 100 15.3 14.7 15.2 -0.3 46.6 46.7 13.3 15.1 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 16.2 14.9 14.1 -0.9 41.7 41.9 13.8 15.8 17.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 95 5 100 14.7 15.1 14.6 0.5 55.5 55.2 12.9 14.6 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 15.7 14.2 12.1 -0.9 39.9 40.3 13.5 15.1 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 94 6 100 15.3 15.9 15.3 0.7 57.4 57.0 13.4 15.2 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 98 2 100 14.8 15.0 13.2 0.2 52.1 52.0 12.8 14.7 16.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 11.9 9.8 11.5 -1.3 37.5 38.0 9.2 11.3 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 94 6 100 14.8 15.0 15.5 0.3 53.3 53.1 12.9 14.6 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------