***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2020.-22.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 10.9 10.6 9.5 0.4 54.7 52.6 7.8 10.0 12.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 10.1 9.6 9.3 0.3 53.5 52.0 7.2 9.2 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 11.0 10.7 9.9 0.4 54.1 52.3 7.8 10.1 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 5.4 5.3 7.3 0.6 56.7 53.8 2.0 4.4 6.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.9 10.6 8.2 0.4 54.2 52.4 7.7 10.0 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.3 10.3 7.8 0.7 57.1 54.6 7.2 9.4 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 9.9 9.6 9.3 0.4 54.5 52.6 7.0 9.1 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 0.4 2.9 7.8 0.3 53.1 52.3 0.7 2.6 4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.2 8.9 0.3 53.7 52.2 8.2 10.6 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.3 8.3 0.3 53.2 52.2 7.5 9.8 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.3 10.8 8.3 0.3 53.5 52.2 7.8 10.3 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.6 8.1 0.3 53.2 52.4 7.8 10.1 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.2 10.7 7.8 0.4 53.9 52.8 7.9 10.2 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.1 9.3 0.3 53.1 52.3 8.1 10.7 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.2 9.3 7.9 0.6 57.1 54.4 6.6 8.5 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 11.7 11.4 8.1 0.4 54.6 52.8 8.5 10.8 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 9.4 9.1 9.1 0.3 54.1 52.5 6.7 8.6 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.1 8.4 0.3 53.0 52.4 6.5 8.7 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 10.3 9.8 9.6 0.3 53.2 51.8 7.2 9.4 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 3.8 7.0 6.8 0.3 52.9 52.6 4.3 6.6 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.2 10.9 9.4 0.4 54.8 52.8 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.6 9.2 0.3 53.7 52.4 7.0 9.1 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 10.4 9.9 9.9 0.3 53.2 51.9 7.3 9.5 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.7 11.2 9.2 0.3 53.1 52.2 8.4 10.8 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.2 10.0 8.2 0.5 55.6 52.9 7.3 9.4 11.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.2 7.7 0.5 55.3 54.2 7.6 9.6 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.0 10.8 9.1 0.4 55.1 52.7 8.0 10.2 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.1 10.1 7.7 0.6 57.1 54.2 7.0 9.2 11.3 29 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 3.7 6.8 7.9 0.3 52.8 52.5 4.1 6.5 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.1 9.7 9.4 0.3 53.7 52.1 7.2 9.2 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------