***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2020.-01.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 6.3 11.6 14.7 148.4 77.1 62.1 2.2 4.5 7.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 5.9 9.0 11.7 124.2 71.8 55.0 2.0 4.1 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 9.8 13.5 16.8 167.6 80.2 63.8 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 11.4 19.3 26.8 239.8 88.9 79.6 3.0 5.5 8.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 10.2 17.4 24.3 233.9 88.6 78.4 2.7 5.1 8.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 15 85 100 8.4 15.7 26.3 275.7 91.6 84.8 2.0 3.8 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.8 8.5 10.8 115.9 69.6 53.0 2.7 4.8 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 18 82 100 12.9 22.1 29.7 237.1 88.4 81.2 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 10.0 15.1 22.0 211.0 86.6 76.4 2.9 5.1 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 13.2 22.2 29.8 246.9 89.8 81.6 3.6 6.4 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 10.1 18.2 28.4 270.8 91.4 83.5 2.8 5.0 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 10.0 15.9 24.8 228.1 87.6 79.8 2.5 4.7 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 10.0 20.7 32.3 297.5 92.8 84.9 2.4 4.5 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 14.3 23.0 25.5 198.2 85.1 71.4 3.5 6.9 11.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 8.8 19.3 30.1 295.1 92.1 83.7 1.5 3.5 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 18 82 100 9.1 17.3 26.9 259.9 90.3 81.7 1.9 3.8 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 3.2 10.9 11.5 118.8 70.4 54.4 2.8 5.6 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 12.7 19.6 27.1 207.4 86.1 78.0 3.1 5.9 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.2 12.1 13.2 135.8 74.5 57.9 2.8 5.4 9.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 12.7 19.4 31.3 208.4 86.2 79.9 2.8 5.5 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 10.0 14.8 19.5 190.2 83.9 71.6 2.2 4.5 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 7.8 12.9 13.8 136.0 74.5 57.8 2.9 5.7 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.0 13.4 16.0 153.6 78.0 62.0 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 13.7 21.7 23.4 200.6 85.3 73.4 3.1 6.2 10.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 8.3 12.1 19.9 186.2 83.2 70.1 2.4 4.3 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 9.6 17.6 24.6 240.1 88.8 79.4 2.2 4.4 7.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 7.5 9.8 15.5 154.9 78.3 64.1 1.9 3.9 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 9.6 18.0 29.4 287.7 91.9 83.8 2.4 4.5 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 18.5 26.4 28.0 202.6 85.5 77.9 5.4 9.4 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.2 9.2 12.3 131.9 73.6 55.7 1.9 4.0 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------