***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2020.-08.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 4.6 11.9 10.2 88.3 60.5 46.7 4.6 8.6 14.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.4 11.6 10.4 92.8 61.8 46.2 3.9 7.7 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.6 11.1 10.4 85.2 59.3 48.0 4.2 8.1 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.5 13.0 13.2 98.5 64.5 54.4 3.1 7.3 13.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 9.9 11.0 12.3 93.6 62.3 53.0 3.7 7.3 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.8 10.1 14.0 108.1 67.0 55.3 3.1 5.9 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 3.5 9.3 9.7 89.2 60.6 45.3 3.1 6.4 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 17.0 18.2 13.3 92.6 61.8 51.5 5.0 11.3 21.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.0 10.2 12.4 95.5 63.2 53.8 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.2 10.8 12.5 90.7 61.0 51.4 3.9 7.5 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.6 9.4 11.9 89.4 60.5 50.3 3.0 6.4 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.3 12.7 12.6 94.7 62.9 52.0 4.4 8.4 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 10.6 11.8 12.2 91.2 61.8 49.4 3.8 7.7 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.2 18.1 13.8 93.6 62.3 50.8 6.8 12.4 20.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.0 9.7 12.9 96.6 64.5 52.2 2.4 5.5 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.3 10.9 12.5 97.1 63.5 52.5 3.2 6.6 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.4 10.1 10.4 91.4 61.7 47.4 3.0 6.6 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 13.1 13.9 13.4 92.4 61.5 53.1 5.0 9.6 15.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.4 11.8 10.9 93.9 62.0 47.4 3.9 7.8 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 6.0 12.9 14.5 81.5 56.5 46.6 5.5 10.4 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 3.7 9.9 11.6 91.4 61.9 52.0 3.3 6.7 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.7 9.7 10.9 89.5 60.6 47.0 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 12.2 13.8 11.6 94.6 62.4 49.6 4.7 9.2 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.3 12.1 12.6 90.3 61.0 51.8 4.3 8.4 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 4.2 11.9 12.4 93.7 62.1 49.8 3.9 7.8 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 8.5 10.4 14.5 99.0 64.1 53.7 2.9 6.2 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 3.9 11.1 11.1 91.2 61.2 47.3 3.6 7.4 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.6 9.1 12.3 96.0 63.8 52.9 2.4 5.4 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 18.4 19.0 13.8 88.4 59.9 50.8 7.6 13.9 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 4.0 10.0 10.1 89.5 60.7 45.4 3.6 7.1 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------