***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2020.-15.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 4.1 10.4 11.6 101.5 64.4 48.8 3.9 6.9 10.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.9 10.4 9.8 89.9 60.6 47.2 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.8 13.4 11.1 99.8 64.1 48.4 4.3 8.5 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 5.0 15.5 13.5 103.2 65.3 45.8 4.8 9.3 15.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.8 12.9 12.1 101.5 64.3 45.8 4.4 8.2 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 4.0 11.7 12.0 101.0 64.5 47.3 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 4.3 10.6 9.8 92.9 61.3 47.6 4.1 7.5 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 5.4 14.4 11.7 95.3 61.6 44.8 5.5 10.1 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 9.8 11.5 12.3 102.2 64.5 48.0 3.7 7.2 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.1 11.6 11.8 95.5 61.6 45.1 3.5 7.5 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.8 11.6 11.1 97.9 63.0 44.9 3.4 7.2 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 4.3 12.0 11.0 97.9 63.1 46.3 4.2 8.0 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 3.8 11.7 11.0 92.5 61.2 42.9 4.0 8.0 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 5.7 13.6 12.7 90.9 60.5 48.0 5.2 9.8 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 3.4 12.3 14.7 105.5 66.9 45.7 3.2 6.7 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 4.0 11.4 11.5 100.2 64.2 46.4 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 10.3 10.4 9.4 86.3 59.1 47.2 3.9 7.7 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.4 10.7 12.1 94.0 60.7 45.9 4.0 7.6 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.3 10.8 9.9 89.7 60.6 47.2 4.0 7.7 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 4.7 12.7 13.7 87.1 58.1 42.7 4.9 9.6 16.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 11.0 13.3 12.0 105.7 65.8 48.5 4.1 8.0 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.1 9.8 83.1 58.4 47.0 3.9 8.2 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.4 10.0 10.3 89.5 60.2 47.2 4.0 7.3 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 4.7 12.2 12.1 97.7 62.6 48.4 4.2 8.1 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.7 11.0 13.1 102.8 64.9 48.0 3.4 6.7 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 3.7 12.5 12.4 98.2 63.8 46.8 3.7 7.7 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 3.3 9.5 12.1 100.3 63.8 48.6 3.0 6.0 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.6 13.0 13.0 105.0 66.1 46.4 3.2 7.1 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 6.3 15.5 12.6 92.8 60.1 45.5 5.9 11.3 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 4.4 10.6 10.1 91.8 61.3 46.9 4.2 7.7 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------