***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2020.-22.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 4.8 13.4 12.7 104.4 65.7 50.9 5.0 8.6 13.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.8 13.5 11.4 100.2 64.5 49.2 4.3 8.4 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 6.2 16.2 12.2 103.4 65.2 49.7 6.3 10.9 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 6.9 20.9 15.1 112.3 68.2 52.6 6.4 11.9 19.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.8 17.7 13.7 108.5 67.0 51.0 5.3 10.1 17.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 16.0 20.8 13.5 110.7 67.3 49.9 6.2 11.9 20.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 5.4 13.9 11.9 107.1 66.6 50.7 5.2 8.8 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 9.4 26.8 13.7 102.5 64.7 47.6 8.2 16.2 27.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 5.3 16.3 13.9 106.6 66.2 50.4 4.5 9.3 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 6.6 17.9 13.9 102.0 64.4 48.0 6.0 11.3 18.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.5 19.8 12.9 106.1 66.1 48.8 6.0 11.6 19.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 16.8 21.5 12.7 105.1 65.8 48.3 4.8 11.3 21.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 16.6 19.6 12.9 101.9 64.5 46.3 5.4 11.6 20.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 8.1 22.6 14.6 103.9 65.1 49.4 8.4 14.7 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 6.0 23.1 15.4 111.4 68.2 51.7 5.1 11.3 21.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 15.4 19.5 12.9 106.3 66.1 48.7 5.6 11.2 19.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 12.1 14.2 11.5 101.3 65.0 50.6 5.6 9.5 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 6.7 20.0 14.3 101.2 63.9 48.0 6.1 12.3 21.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 5.5 15.0 11.3 98.6 63.9 48.3 5.2 9.8 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.2 22.2 17.4 100.4 63.8 47.6 5.8 13.0 24.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 6.0 16.2 13.3 106.4 66.2 50.5 5.6 10.1 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.7 14.8 12.1 99.1 64.3 49.6 5.2 9.6 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 5.0 15.0 11.8 101.5 64.6 48.0 5.4 9.7 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 5.7 17.9 13.8 104.7 65.3 49.5 5.8 11.0 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 4.4 13.7 14.6 108.3 67.0 52.2 4.4 8.1 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 17.6 20.5 13.2 100.0 64.3 48.7 6.0 12.5 21.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 4.3 13.6 13.4 105.4 66.0 51.4 4.4 8.2 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 13.5 18.3 14.3 112.9 68.4 51.7 4.4 9.4 16.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 9.9 28.9 15.1 100.6 63.7 47.8 9.6 18.4 31.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 5.1 13.7 11.7 102.0 65.0 49.4 4.8 8.8 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------