***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2020.-22.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 43.8 48.8 49.2 109.2 64.3 56.7 30.0 39.4 49.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 45.3 46.1 43.2 100.9 59.9 51.6 26.8 38.4 51.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 50.0 56.9 50.5 111.9 65.5 57.4 33.5 44.9 57.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 68.8 74.4 68.5 134.4 74.7 67.0 38.6 51.1 64.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 58.1 62.0 62.5 129.8 73.2 65.7 35.7 45.3 56.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 57.2 64.9 65.8 141.3 77.5 70.2 29.2 40.2 52.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 23.7 42.5 42.1 100.8 60.0 51.4 23.5 34.7 47.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 89.6 95.6 68.4 130.4 73.5 66.3 49.2 65.8 84.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 44.9 56.2 60.6 125.0 71.4 64.2 32.4 41.8 52.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 62.7 68.3 68.0 131.2 74.0 66.8 36.8 48.0 60.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 61.9 67.4 64.2 135.9 75.5 68.3 33.6 45.0 57.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 67.9 71.2 61.1 128.6 72.6 65.6 35.0 48.1 63.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 68.2 75.6 68.5 140.1 76.8 70.0 35.1 47.8 62.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 68.2 80.0 66.5 119.7 69.1 60.8 48.5 62.1 76.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 62.3 72.5 73.1 142.7 76.8 68.7 27.9 41.3 57.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 61.3 66.7 63.8 136.1 75.4 68.2 29.3 41.7 55.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 46.1 46.2 42.9 98.9 58.6 51.5 27.1 39.2 53.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 58.1 69.2 66.8 122.7 70.6 62.8 43.0 53.7 65.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 48.8 51.4 45.3 103.4 61.1 53.0 29.9 42.0 56.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 79.1 78.1 76.9 118.1 68.3 60.8 46.4 60.4 75.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 45.9 55.9 56.4 120.6 69.4 61.9 32.9 42.5 53.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 49.3 50.5 46.6 100.7 59.5 52.8 29.7 42.2 57.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 48.8 54.1 49.7 108.5 63.7 55.5 31.9 43.3 56.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 53.9 66.2 61.9 120.9 69.6 61.5 37.5 49.4 62.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 52.5 52.8 60.1 119.7 68.9 61.1 27.1 37.5 50.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 64.3 67.8 64.7 127.7 72.3 65.0 34.6 46.8 60.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 42.0 47.3 52.0 110.9 65.0 57.2 27.5 37.1 48.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 57.6 65.4 69.1 143.4 77.4 69.8 29.9 40.9 53.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 84.5 95.8 69.5 120.1 69.4 61.5 65.8 78.9 92.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 26.8 45.3 44.3 102.6 60.9 52.3 26.8 37.2 49.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------