***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.10.2014.-02.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 98 2 0 100 0.2 -1.4 1.7 -5.0 8.8 10.4 2.4 4.3 6.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 96 4 0 100 0.4 -0.8 1.9 -4.5 10.0 11.6 2.4 4.1 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 98 2 0 100 2.9 1.4 1.6 -4.8 8.3 10.1 4.8 6.4 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 95 5 0 100 -2.0 -3.1 -0.2 -4.1 11.1 12.7 0.0 1.7 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 97 3 0 100 -0.2 -1.7 -0.2 -4.6 8.4 9.8 1.7 3.3 4.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 95 5 0 100 -0.5 -1.8 -1.5 -3.9 9.6 11.9 1.2 2.7 4.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 97 3 0 100 0.4 -0.7 1.9 -4.5 10.7 11.9 2.4 4.0 5.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 96 4 0 100 -3.7 -4.9 -1.1 -4.2 9.7 11.2 -1.9 -0.3 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 96 4 0 100 0.5 -1.3 0.3 -4.6 7.4 8.8 2.5 4.1 5.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 96 4 0 100 0.8 -0.5 -0.8 -4.5 8.8 10.2 2.5 4.0 5.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 96 4 0 100 0.2 -1.2 -0.3 -4.4 8.6 10.0 2.0 3.5 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 96 4 0 100 -0.7 -2.3 -0.8 -4.3 8.2 9.7 1.2 2.8 4.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 96 4 0 100 -0.4 -1.8 -0.9 -4.2 8.8 10.5 1.4 3.0 4.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 99 1 0 100 1.5 -0.1 0.3 -4.9 7.2 8.9 3.4 4.9 6.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 93 7 0 100 0.9 -0.6 0.6 -4.3 8.8 11.0 2.6 4.1 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 96 4 0 100 1.0 -0.5 -0.7 -4.3 8.6 10.1 2.8 4.3 5.8 30 Nis 06700G01 96 4 0 100 0.5 -0.5 1.8 -4.3 11.1 12.5 2.5 4.1 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 97 3 0 100 -0.4 -1.6 -1.3 -4.3 9.1 10.7 1.2 2.6 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 97 3 0 100 0.6 -0.6 2.0 -4.4 10.1 11.9 2.5 4.2 5.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 96 4 0 100 -3.4 -4.4 -2.6 -4.2 10.1 12.4 -1.6 -0.2 1.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 98 2 0 100 0.1 -1.8 1.1 -4.9 7.3 9.0 2.2 4.0 5.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 94 6 0 100 0.0 -1.2 1.9 -4.3 10.6 12.3 1.8 3.4 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 97 3 0 100 0.8 -0.3 1.9 -4.2 10.0 11.9 2.6 4.2 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 98 2 0 100 0.4 -1.0 0.2 -4.6 8.1 9.8 2.3 3.8 5.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 96 4 0 100 1.1 -0.1 0.9 -4.5 10.0 11.7 2.9 4.4 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 96 4 0 100 0.3 -1.0 -1.1 -4.4 8.5 10.2 2.0 3.4 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 97 3 0 100 0.2 -1.3 1.2 -4.7 9.6 11.1 2.5 4.5 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 95 5 0 100 -0.3 -1.5 0.0 -4.3 9.8 11.5 1.3 2.7 4.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 96 4 0 100 -1.1 -2.3 -1.5 -4.0 10.6 12.6 0.9 2.6 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 98 2 0 100 0.5 -0.9 2.0 -4.6 9.7 11.2 2.6 4.4 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------