***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.11.2014.-16.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 1.5 1.8 3.1 -1.4 32.1 36.6 1.8 3.1 4.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 0.7 1.2 2.9 -1.1 35.3 39.4 1.0 2.4 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 2.6 2.9 2.8 -1.3 32.1 36.7 3.0 4.4 5.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 -2.9 -2.6 0.4 -1.3 30.7 36.5 -2.3 -0.7 0.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 0.1 0.4 0.6 -1.3 31.1 36.4 0.6 1.9 3.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 -0.6 -0.3 -0.9 -1.3 31.9 38.9 -0.2 1.1 2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 0.7 1.1 2.9 -1.2 35.2 39.3 0.9 2.2 3.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -4.6 -4.1 -0.4 -1.3 33.4 38.2 -4.1 -2.6 -1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 0.7 1.1 1.4 -1.4 31.8 36.7 1.2 2.6 3.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 0.2 0.7 0.2 -1.4 32.4 37.2 0.7 2.0 3.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 -0.3 0.1 0.4 -1.3 31.3 36.6 0.3 1.6 2.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 -0.9 -0.5 0.0 -1.3 31.8 37.2 -0.4 0.9 2.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 -0.6 -0.3 -0.4 -1.4 30.6 37.0 -0.1 1.2 2.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 1.6 1.9 1.3 -1.3 32.2 37.4 1.9 3.0 4.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 -0.2 0.0 0.9 -1.3 30.6 37.0 0.3 1.6 2.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 0.7 0.9 -0.1 -1.4 30.4 36.3 1.1 2.4 3.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 2.7 1.4 2.9 -0.9 37.7 41.3 1.0 2.2 3.3 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -1.4 32.4 37.1 -0.5 0.6 1.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 0.9 1.3 2.9 -1.1 34.7 38.9 1.2 2.5 3.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -3.9 -3.4 -1.5 -1.3 35.7 39.9 -3.7 -2.0 -0.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 0.6 1.1 2.3 -1.4 31.7 36.4 1.2 2.5 3.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 2.4 1.2 3.0 -0.8 38.9 42.1 0.8 1.9 2.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 1.1 1.3 2.6 -1.2 33.5 38.0 1.3 2.4 3.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 0.4 0.7 1.1 -1.4 31.6 36.7 0.8 1.8 2.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 1.0 1.2 1.4 -1.3 32.0 36.8 1.3 2.5 3.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 -1.3 32.0 38.0 0.2 1.4 2.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 1.1 1.6 2.3 -1.3 32.8 37.2 1.6 3.1 4.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 -1.3 -1.0 0.5 -1.3 30.6 36.9 -0.8 0.6 2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 -1.5 -1.1 -0.8 -1.4 33.6 38.2 -1.2 0.4 1.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 1.0 1.4 3.0 -1.2 33.9 38.2 1.3 2.7 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------