***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.11.2014.-23.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 0.1 1.4 2.8 -0.6 41.6 42.3 0.5 2.1 3.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 2.1 0.6 2.5 -0.4 43.9 45.0 -0.5 1.3 3.0 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 1.0 2.3 2.4 -0.6 41.0 42.5 1.4 3.2 4.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 -4.7 -3.7 -0.1 -1.0 35.2 39.7 -3.9 -1.9 -0.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 -1.0 -0.4 0.2 -1.0 35.0 39.6 -0.6 0.9 2.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 -1.7 -1.1 -1.4 -1.0 35.0 40.8 -1.3 0.2 1.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 -0.6 0.8 2.6 -0.4 44.0 44.9 -0.3 1.4 3.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -6.7 -5.8 -0.9 -1.0 35.4 42.2 -6.1 -4.3 -2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 -0.4 0.5 1.0 -0.8 37.3 40.9 0.1 1.7 3.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 -1.1 -0.3 -0.3 -1.0 35.9 41.6 -0.6 0.9 2.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 -1.3 -0.7 -0.1 -1.0 33.5 39.5 -0.8 0.7 2.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 -1.9 -1.3 -0.5 -1.0 35.2 41.1 -1.4 -0.1 1.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 -1.4 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0 35.1 40.4 -0.9 0.6 2.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 -0.3 0.9 1.0 -0.5 42.2 44.8 0.1 1.6 3.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 -0.4 0.5 0.5 -0.9 36.9 40.7 0.1 1.5 2.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 -0.4 0.0 -0.6 -1.1 33.6 39.6 0.0 1.4 2.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 1.9 0.8 2.6 -0.3 45.6 46.4 -0.4 1.2 2.8 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 -2.3 -1.8 -0.9 -1.0 36.0 42.5 -2.1 -0.8 0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 -0.6 0.7 2.4 -0.4 43.5 44.9 -0.3 1.3 2.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -5.8 -5.2 -2.1 -1.1 36.3 43.8 -5.6 -3.7 -1.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 -0.9 0.4 1.9 -0.7 39.6 41.4 -0.3 1.4 3.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 1.4 0.4 2.4 -0.3 45.5 46.6 -0.8 0.8 2.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 -0.8 0.5 2.1 -0.4 43.1 44.7 -0.4 1.1 2.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 -1.1 -0.2 0.7 -0.8 38.5 42.7 -0.7 0.7 2.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 -0.4 0.7 1.0 -0.7 39.2 41.1 0.2 1.6 3.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 -1.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.9 35.8 40.7 -0.5 0.8 2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 -1.0 0.6 2.0 -0.6 41.1 42.1 -0.4 1.6 3.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 -1.9 -1.2 0.0 -1.0 35.1 40.3 -1.4 0.0 1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 -0.5 -3.0 -1.4 -1.1 35.0 42.8 -3.3 -1.3 0.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 -0.4 0.9 2.6 -0.5 42.8 44.0 -0.1 1.7 3.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------