***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.10.2014.-02.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 84 16 0 100 11.4 11.5 11.0 -3.4 20.5 21.8 13.1 14.9 16.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 88 12 0 100 11.4 11.5 11.1 -3.4 19.7 21.1 13.0 14.5 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 89 11 0 100 11.6 11.7 10.9 -3.7 19.2 20.7 13.5 15.3 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 84 16 0 100 4.7 4.4 8.1 -3.7 18.4 20.7 6.7 8.9 11.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 89 11 0 100 11.7 11.6 9.2 -3.9 18.5 20.5 13.5 15.3 17.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 88 12 0 100 11.0 10.3 7.2 -4.8 15.2 17.6 12.8 14.8 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 86 14 0 100 11.2 11.3 11.1 -3.2 20.4 21.8 12.6 14.2 15.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 83 17 0 100 4.7 4.6 8.3 -4.0 19.6 21.6 6.0 7.5 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 86 14 0 100 12.0 11.9 10.3 -3.8 19.3 21.2 13.7 15.5 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 85 15 0 100 11.6 11.5 9.0 -4.0 19.1 21.1 13.3 15.2 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 91 9 0 100 11.6 11.5 9.0 -4.2 17.5 19.5 13.6 15.6 17.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 89 11 0 100 11.3 11.0 8.4 -4.2 17.3 19.3 13.2 15.2 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 92 8 0 100 11.7 11.4 8.4 -4.5 16.1 18.1 13.7 15.6 17.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 86 14 0 100 11.5 11.6 10.5 -3.7 20.4 22.2 13.5 15.6 17.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 83 17 0 100 11.1 10.8 9.4 -3.5 18.2 20.7 12.5 14.2 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 92 8 0 100 12.4 12.1 8.5 -4.4 16.0 18.0 14.4 16.3 18.0 30 Nis 06700G01 85 15 0 100 10.8 11.0 11.0 -3.1 20.9 22.4 12.2 13.7 15.2 30 Palic 37000G16 79 21 0 100 10.8 10.6 8.8 -4.0 20.2 22.3 12.3 14.3 16.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 88 12 0 100 11.3 11.3 11.1 -3.4 19.5 21.0 13.0 14.7 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 77 23 0 100 9.3 9.1 7.3 -3.8 21.3 23.6 10.6 12.4 14.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 88 12 0 100 11.8 11.9 10.8 -3.7 19.7 21.4 13.6 15.3 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 86 14 0 100 11.1 11.2 11.1 -3.1 20.6 22.2 12.7 14.4 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 88 12 0 100 11.3 11.4 11.0 -3.5 19.6 21.1 13.1 14.8 16.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 84 16 0 100 11.9 11.8 10.2 -3.8 20.0 21.9 13.7 15.6 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 78 22 0 100 11.5 11.4 9.9 -3.3 21.6 23.2 12.7 14.4 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 87 13 0 100 11.8 11.4 8.0 -4.2 16.9 19.0 13.4 15.1 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 79 21 0 100 12.0 12.0 10.7 -3.2 21.6 23.0 13.4 15.0 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 87 13 0 100 10.8 10.4 8.5 -4.0 16.9 19.3 12.7 14.6 16.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 7.9 7.7 8.5 -3.7 22.1 24.3 9.3 11.5 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 89 11 0 100 11.2 11.3 11.1 -3.5 19.4 20.7 12.8 14.4 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------