***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.11.2014.-09.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 10.0 9.7 10.4 -2.3 24.9 29.3 10.8 12.7 14.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 10.2 10.2 10.5 -2.0 27.8 31.8 10.8 12.5 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 10.6 10.3 10.5 -2.3 25.4 30.1 11.3 13.2 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.1 4.0 8.9 -2.0 27.8 32.6 4.6 6.5 8.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 10.2 10.0 9.0 -2.3 25.4 30.4 10.9 12.8 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 9.5 9.1 7.9 -2.7 22.9 28.8 10.4 12.4 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 9.9 9.8 10.3 -2.1 27.1 31.0 10.5 12.2 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 2.1 1.9 8.1 -2.6 22.8 28.6 3.2 5.0 6.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 10.4 10.2 9.5 -2.5 24.4 29.6 11.3 13.3 15.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 10.0 9.7 8.7 -2.6 23.1 28.7 11.0 12.8 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 10.3 9.9 8.8 -2.5 24.0 29.3 11.1 13.1 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 9.9 9.5 8.5 -2.6 22.6 28.0 10.9 12.8 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 10.0 9.4 8.1 -2.8 20.9 26.4 11.0 13.0 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 10.9 10.7 9.7 -2.5 24.9 30.4 11.7 13.6 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 10.4 10.5 9.3 -1.7 30.5 35.2 10.7 12.1 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 10.6 10.1 8.5 -2.6 23.4 28.7 11.5 13.5 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 9.9 10.0 10.3 -1.8 29.5 33.2 10.4 12.0 13.5 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 9.2 8.8 8.3 -2.8 22.1 28.2 10.1 12.0 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 10.3 10.3 10.6 -2.1 27.6 31.8 10.9 12.7 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 6.9 6.4 6.6 -2.8 21.8 28.2 8.0 10.0 11.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 10.3 10.1 10.0 -2.4 24.9 29.8 11.1 13.0 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 10.4 10.6 10.5 -1.8 30.2 34.1 10.9 12.6 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 10.4 10.3 10.6 -2.2 26.8 31.4 11.1 12.9 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 10.7 10.4 9.5 -2.6 23.7 29.4 11.7 13.6 15.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 9.7 9.5 9.2 -2.2 25.9 30.4 10.3 12.1 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 10.1 9.5 8.0 -2.8 20.5 26.1 11.1 12.9 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 10.1 9.8 9.8 -2.3 25.0 29.4 10.8 12.7 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 10.3 10.3 9.1 -1.9 28.6 33.4 10.7 12.1 13.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 6.1 5.6 7.6 -2.9 21.8 28.2 7.2 9.2 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 10.1 9.9 10.5 -2.2 26.6 30.8 10.6 12.4 14.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------