***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.11.2014.-16.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9.1 9.7 9.5 -1.3 34.4 39.7 9.5 11.4 13.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 11.0 8.8 9.5 -1.0 37.1 41.7 8.3 10.2 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 9.1 9.9 9.7 -1.2 36.4 41.5 9.5 11.5 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 3.3 4.1 7.6 -1.2 36.0 41.4 3.7 5.8 7.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 9.3 10.1 8.0 -1.2 36.2 41.5 9.7 11.7 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 8.6 9.5 7.1 -1.4 35.6 40.5 9.1 11.1 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 7.9 8.5 9.4 -1.1 35.8 40.6 8.2 10.1 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 2.4 3.1 7.3 -1.2 37.3 42.4 2.7 4.3 5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 9.6 10.5 8.7 -1.3 36.4 41.6 10.0 12.1 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 9.0 9.9 8.0 -1.2 37.0 42.2 9.4 11.3 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 9.5 10.3 7.9 -1.2 36.3 41.6 9.9 11.9 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 9.2 10.1 7.7 -1.3 36.1 41.5 9.7 11.7 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 9.3 10.0 7.3 -1.5 34.2 39.7 9.9 11.7 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 13.0 10.7 9.2 -1.0 39.7 44.0 9.9 12.0 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 7.5 8.1 7.8 -1.1 36.0 41.7 7.8 9.4 10.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 9.8 10.6 7.6 -1.4 35.5 40.8 10.3 12.3 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.5 8.5 9.3 -0.9 38.4 42.7 8.0 9.7 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 8.2 9.2 7.8 -1.2 37.8 42.7 8.7 10.4 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 11.6 9.4 9.7 -1.0 38.1 42.5 8.8 10.8 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 6.5 7.5 6.1 -1.2 38.0 42.9 7.0 8.8 10.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 9.2 10.0 9.1 -1.3 35.7 41.0 9.6 11.6 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.2 9.4 9.5 -0.7 40.8 44.4 8.5 10.4 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 11.6 9.6 9.8 -0.9 39.2 43.4 8.8 10.8 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 9.9 10.9 9.0 -1.1 38.2 43.0 10.3 12.4 14.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 8.3 8.9 8.2 -1.3 34.8 40.2 8.7 10.6 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 8.9 9.5 7.2 -1.5 34.0 39.8 9.4 11.0 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 9.1 9.6 8.9 -1.3 34.4 39.7 9.4 11.4 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 8.1 8.7 7.8 -1.2 36.5 41.9 8.4 9.7 10.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 5.7 6.9 7.2 -1.2 38.0 42.9 6.3 8.2 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.1 8.8 9.6 -1.1 36.1 41.0 8.5 10.4 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------