***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.11.2014.-23.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 10.4 8.9 8.7 -0.4 44.6 45.8 7.4 9.5 11.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 9.6 8.5 8.6 -0.2 47.0 47.9 6.9 8.9 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 10.8 9.3 8.8 -0.3 45.9 46.9 7.6 9.9 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 1.2 2.9 6.5 -0.6 41.9 44.4 1.7 4.0 6.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 7.1 8.7 7.0 -0.6 41.8 44.6 7.5 9.7 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 6.3 7.6 6.1 -1.0 38.0 43.2 6.9 9.1 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 9.5 8.3 8.4 -0.3 46.1 47.1 6.8 8.7 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 0.0 1.3 6.3 -0.8 39.2 44.0 0.5 2.4 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 7.6 9.5 7.8 -0.5 43.2 45.5 8.0 10.4 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 6.8 8.5 7.0 -0.7 41.6 45.0 7.3 9.6 11.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 7.0 8.5 6.8 -0.8 39.7 43.6 7.6 10.0 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 6.9 8.2 6.6 -1.0 37.3 42.6 7.5 9.9 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 7.1 8.1 6.3 -1.1 35.6 41.5 7.7 10.0 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 11.5 10.1 8.3 -0.2 47.7 48.2 7.9 10.4 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 5.7 7.3 6.8 -0.6 41.6 44.3 6.3 8.2 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 7.7 9.0 6.5 -0.9 38.3 42.8 8.3 10.5 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 9.0 8.1 8.4 -0.1 48.6 49.1 6.4 8.3 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 5.6 7.5 7.0 -0.6 42.8 45.7 6.2 8.4 10.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 9.9 8.8 8.7 -0.2 47.6 48.4 7.0 9.1 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 3.4 5.0 5.2 -0.8 39.2 44.5 4.1 6.4 8.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.0 9.3 8.3 -0.4 44.2 45.8 7.8 10.1 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 9.6 8.8 8.5 0.0 50.2 50.2 6.7 8.8 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.9 8.9 8.9 -0.1 48.1 48.7 7.0 9.1 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 7.7 10.0 8.1 -0.3 45.7 47.1 8.2 10.5 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.9 8.4 7.3 -0.5 43.7 45.4 7.1 9.1 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 6.8 7.5 6.1 -1.2 34.0 40.8 7.4 9.4 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 10.8 9.2 8.1 -0.4 44.3 45.7 7.8 9.9 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 6.1 7.8 6.7 -0.6 41.3 44.2 6.6 8.9 11.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 3.2 5.1 6.3 -0.7 41.6 45.4 3.9 6.3 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 9.6 8.4 8.7 -0.3 46.1 47.1 6.9 8.9 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------