***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.10.2014.-23.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 10.3 9.8 9.9 -1.9 21.0 26.8 10.9 12.1 13.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 9.9 9.5 9.9 -1.7 22.9 28.0 10.3 11.5 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 10.7 10.1 10.0 -1.9 21.4 27.2 11.2 12.5 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 4.6 4.1 7.8 -1.9 21.3 27.8 5.1 6.3 7.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 10.6 10.1 8.3 -2.0 20.5 27.1 11.2 12.4 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 9.8 9.0 7.1 -2.4 17.2 24.1 10.5 11.8 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 9.7 9.3 9.8 -1.7 22.5 27.5 10.1 11.3 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 3.5 3.0 7.5 -2.1 19.5 26.4 3.9 4.8 5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 11.0 10.4 9.1 -2.0 20.6 27.3 11.5 12.8 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 10.4 9.8 8.2 -2.1 19.7 26.6 11.0 12.2 13.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 10.7 10.0 8.1 -2.2 19.3 26.0 11.3 12.6 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 10.5 9.7 7.8 -2.3 18.2 24.9 11.1 12.4 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 10.4 9.5 7.5 -2.5 16.4 23.2 11.2 12.6 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 10.9 10.5 9.4 -1.8 22.8 29.1 11.5 12.9 14.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 9.6 9.2 8.3 -1.7 22.3 28.9 10.0 11.0 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 11.1 10.3 7.8 -2.3 18.2 24.9 11.8 13.2 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 9.5 9.2 9.8 -1.5 24.9 29.7 9.8 10.9 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 9.5 8.9 8.0 -2.2 20.0 27.0 10.0 11.3 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 10.1 9.7 10.0 -1.7 23.3 28.4 10.6 11.8 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 7.6 7.0 6.3 -2.1 19.5 26.8 8.2 9.4 10.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 10.7 10.2 9.6 -1.9 20.9 27.2 11.2 12.5 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 10.0 9.7 9.9 -1.4 26.2 30.9 10.3 11.6 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 10.2 9.8 10.1 -1.7 23.4 28.9 10.6 11.9 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 11.1 10.6 9.2 -2.0 21.4 27.9 11.7 13.0 14.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 9.9 9.5 8.6 -1.8 21.9 27.9 10.4 11.5 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 10.2 9.4 7.3 -2.4 16.3 22.8 10.9 12.1 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 10.5 10.0 9.4 -1.8 21.5 27.3 11.0 12.3 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 9.9 9.5 8.0 -1.9 21.1 27.8 10.4 11.4 12.3 29 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 7.0 6.4 7.4 -2.1 20.4 27.6 7.5 8.8 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 9.9 9.4 10.0 -1.8 21.9 27.2 10.3 11.5 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------