***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.10.2014.-02.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 77 23 0 100 1.7 3.5 4.2 45.9 41.8 26.2 2.4 4.7 8.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 76 24 0 100 1.5 2.5 3.7 41.4 38.1 26.6 2.0 4.0 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 2.0 4.0 4.8 50.5 43.6 29.9 2.5 5.0 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 2.1 4.1 4.9 42.9 41.8 27.4 2.9 5.4 9.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 2.7 4.6 5.9 52.8 45.3 33.7 3.0 5.4 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 2.0 3.6 5.2 50.6 47.0 33.6 2.2 3.9 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 77 23 0 100 1.5 2.2 3.0 34.5 33.4 22.0 2.1 4.2 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 2.7 4.8 5.6 49.4 43.8 32.2 2.9 6.0 10.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 2.6 4.3 5.3 49.9 44.0 31.0 2.9 5.2 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 3.2 5.3 5.9 52.7 44.8 32.7 3.4 6.3 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 2.1 4.0 5.4 51.2 45.9 32.0 2.3 4.6 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 2.3 4.3 5.1 50.2 45.8 32.4 2.6 5.0 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 2.3 4.2 5.1 50.1 47.0 32.7 2.4 4.7 8.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 3.6 6.9 6.2 57.8 47.5 35.9 3.9 7.6 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.1 3.5 6.7 58.5 49.8 39.3 1.5 3.5 6.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 1.7 3.5 5.1 49.8 45.6 31.2 2.0 4.1 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 78 22 0 100 1.5 1.9 2.9 30.3 31.1 20.8 2.1 4.6 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 2.9 4.7 6.4 55.4 44.6 33.2 2.8 5.7 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 2.2 4.0 4.5 48.2 42.7 30.8 2.7 5.3 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 2.8 3.9 5.6 39.7 37.0 27.9 3.2 6.2 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 2.4 4.1 5.0 50.2 44.3 31.0 2.6 5.0 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 2.2 3.0 3.6 35.9 34.6 23.9 2.9 5.6 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 2.9 5.5 5.6 58.6 48.3 36.4 3.1 5.9 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 3.5 6.1 6.3 59.6 47.2 35.2 3.4 6.8 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 2.4 3.9 5.1 47.1 42.4 29.2 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 2.2 4.3 5.7 56.5 50.4 36.0 2.1 4.2 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 1.7 2.9 4.5 44.7 40.4 26.5 2.2 4.1 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 1.8 3.4 4.9 45.1 43.4 29.2 2.2 4.3 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 4.8 7.2 6.3 50.7 42.5 32.0 5.2 9.1 14.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 1.6 2.9 4.1 45.7 41.0 28.5 2.0 4.1 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------