***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.11.2014.-09.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 4.6 14.5 11.5 108.0 67.3 49.4 4.6 8.5 14.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 4.0 11.2 9.4 84.6 60.1 45.2 3.7 7.7 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 4.3 15.8 12.8 122.6 71.0 53.1 4.2 8.0 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 4.0 15.7 12.8 104.1 65.9 46.5 3.5 8.2 15.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 9.6 14.1 14.0 119.9 70.7 53.9 3.2 6.8 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 8.5 11.6 15.0 115.7 69.5 55.2 3.2 6.2 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 3.3 9.6 9.1 84.4 60.0 43.8 3.1 6.6 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 16.1 23.7 14.4 116.2 69.3 54.9 4.7 11.0 20.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.7 13.6 14.8 128.7 72.8 55.1 3.2 6.3 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.0 15.2 15.6 125.6 71.9 56.8 3.9 7.5 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.3 13.2 13.0 116.3 69.7 53.9 3.3 6.8 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.7 15.4 12.7 118.9 70.2 54.1 3.9 7.8 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 10.8 15.5 13.5 114.1 69.0 54.1 3.7 7.8 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 7.3 21.5 16.8 121.2 70.5 56.3 6.7 12.0 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.2 10.7 12.6 96.1 63.0 43.5 2.6 6.1 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.1 13.6 12.8 111.3 68.1 52.0 3.5 7.2 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 3.4 9.2 8.0 71.6 54.8 37.8 3.6 7.7 13.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 11.9 18.8 17.8 130.2 72.8 58.7 4.6 9.0 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 4.0 11.9 10.5 93.9 62.9 48.5 3.6 7.5 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 12.7 15.3 17.5 99.2 63.7 52.1 4.7 9.5 16.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.4 13.7 13.7 130.6 73.2 54.0 3.0 6.1 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 3.6 8.9 9.0 74.6 55.0 40.9 3.6 7.4 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 4.7 15.0 12.4 108.1 67.0 52.3 4.5 8.7 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 11.0 17.5 16.8 136.1 74.4 58.6 4.2 8.1 13.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.6 14.6 13.7 117.2 69.9 51.1 3.2 7.0 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.8 13.8 12.9 115.1 69.4 54.1 3.3 6.9 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 4.0 13.3 12.5 108.2 67.5 49.8 3.8 7.4 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 3.0 10.4 12.7 99.9 64.4 45.3 2.5 5.8 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 17.8 26.0 18.6 123.3 70.9 57.8 6.9 13.3 22.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.6 11.0 10.3 94.9 63.7 48.4 3.3 6.9 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------