***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.11.2014.-16.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 8.5 12.1 10.6 113.2 69.0 55.4 3.2 6.3 10.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 9.3 11.2 9.8 99.5 64.5 52.4 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 11.9 17.4 11.3 119.6 70.2 55.5 4.3 8.6 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.1 16.0 12.1 108.1 67.1 50.2 4.9 9.3 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 12.5 18.4 12.6 122.0 71.0 54.7 5.0 9.4 15.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 5.1 14.3 12.4 113.7 68.7 53.5 4.7 8.5 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 4.3 10.8 9.4 94.7 63.2 51.5 3.9 7.2 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 15.4 23.5 14.3 131.4 73.2 56.6 6.8 12.1 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.9 17.4 13.4 129.5 72.8 56.6 4.3 8.4 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 12.2 19.8 14.4 131.2 73.2 57.1 4.8 9.2 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.7 18.3 12.2 127.6 72.4 55.3 4.3 8.5 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 12.4 20.0 12.3 132.2 73.5 56.6 4.8 9.2 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.6 17.5 12.4 126.9 72.2 56.6 4.5 8.6 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.5 19.7 14.7 124.1 71.2 54.7 5.1 9.9 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 3.3 12.0 12.5 100.7 64.9 47.3 3.2 6.8 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 5.1 15.5 11.8 122.1 70.8 54.0 4.7 8.5 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 9.6 9.9 9.3 88.0 60.5 48.7 3.7 7.1 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 12.1 18.4 16.0 128.8 72.5 56.6 4.7 8.9 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 10.3 13.2 10.4 106.2 66.4 53.4 3.9 7.6 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 15.4 21.4 18.6 118.7 69.8 54.7 5.9 11.4 19.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 12.2 18.9 12.3 128.7 72.6 56.6 5.0 9.2 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.4 12.3 10.6 93.7 61.9 50.1 4.5 8.4 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 10.1 13.6 11.5 115.4 69.2 54.4 4.1 7.7 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.0 17.8 14.3 126.7 72.0 55.8 4.3 8.5 14.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 9.5 13.8 12.2 116.4 69.7 54.8 3.6 7.1 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 5.3 17.3 12.0 121.4 70.9 55.5 4.8 9.0 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 9.3 13.0 11.3 111.7 68.5 54.9 3.2 6.7 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.5 13.4 12.1 106.2 66.4 48.7 3.2 7.1 13.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 17.5 24.7 16.9 123.3 70.9 55.6 7.1 13.1 21.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 9.6 12.3 10.1 105.2 66.4 53.8 3.6 7.1 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------