***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.11.2014.-23.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 5.4 13.5 10.0 105.3 65.3 49.3 5.4 9.0 13.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 3.5 10.9 8.8 90.6 60.2 45.0 3.7 7.6 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 5.0 13.3 9.2 96.6 62.0 47.1 4.9 9.2 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 5.3 15.9 10.5 94.9 61.5 46.9 5.6 10.9 18.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 4.9 15.7 10.9 109.1 66.4 49.3 4.8 9.2 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 6.2 22.8 12.2 118.6 69.6 52.8 6.4 12.2 20.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 4.0 11.4 9.1 95.2 61.7 45.9 4.5 8.1 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 8.4 29.8 11.7 116.2 69.0 51.7 8.4 16.1 27.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 4.6 15.8 11.3 112.9 67.8 50.2 4.1 8.5 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 5.0 18.6 11.8 115.9 68.8 51.4 4.7 9.7 17.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 5.6 19.8 10.4 112.7 67.9 50.2 5.4 10.8 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 5.7 22.5 10.4 114.2 68.4 51.4 5.2 11.5 20.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 6.5 22.9 11.2 115.7 68.6 52.3 6.2 12.3 21.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 7.4 19.7 10.4 94.6 60.9 47.3 7.7 14.1 22.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 5.3 13.4 9.7 77.5 55.3 42.9 4.6 10.7 20.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 5.6 19.3 10.3 110.6 67.1 50.3 5.7 11.1 18.7 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 4.3 11.8 9.1 92.2 60.2 43.5 4.9 8.8 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 5.8 21.0 12.3 113.3 67.5 51.0 5.8 11.7 19.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 5.4 13.5 8.6 88.9 59.7 45.1 5.6 10.1 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 5.9 23.7 14.7 111.7 67.2 50.9 6.0 12.7 22.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 4.7 14.7 10.4 109.5 66.7 49.9 4.4 8.6 14.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 5.3 12.9 9.1 87.8 59.0 43.7 5.7 10.0 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 4.8 12.4 8.7 89.3 59.3 45.3 5.1 9.3 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 5.9 17.6 10.7 103.6 64.0 48.7 5.5 11.0 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 4.1 11.7 11.1 100.9 64.0 48.6 4.0 7.5 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 5.8 21.9 11.0 112.3 67.7 51.7 5.7 11.8 20.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 4.1 11.7 10.7 102.3 64.4 48.8 4.0 7.5 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 4.3 12.8 10.1 91.1 60.0 45.9 4.2 8.9 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 9.3 30.6 13.2 113.2 67.6 51.1 9.7 17.8 29.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 4.2 11.5 8.8 92.0 60.6 45.8 4.4 8.3 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------