***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.10.2014.-23.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 44.9 42.7 36.3 93.8 55.0 46.0 30.2 39.6 50.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 27.2 35.3 31.7 80.0 45.7 40.8 27.1 38.4 51.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 51.0 50.1 38.2 97.9 56.7 47.3 33.8 45.2 57.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 35.3 51.5 40.3 87.6 50.1 41.9 38.7 51.5 65.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 34.2 51.0 43.5 100.5 58.3 47.9 35.6 45.8 56.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 30.3 48.0 44.8 100.7 58.6 50.2 30.6 41.8 54.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 23.4 31.4 30.6 78.6 45.5 40.2 23.5 34.5 47.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 51.2 78.7 45.9 102.9 59.5 49.5 51.3 68.2 86.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 32.6 50.0 44.7 105.5 61.6 50.0 33.2 42.6 53.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 37.3 57.6 47.7 106.6 61.9 50.7 37.5 48.8 61.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 33.0 52.4 41.0 101.1 58.7 48.0 34.2 45.8 58.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 57.3 58.6 40.5 103.2 60.0 49.5 36.0 49.5 64.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 35.3 57.0 42.1 101.7 59.2 50.0 36.4 49.2 63.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 70.0 70.3 48.0 101.4 58.5 49.5 50.7 63.3 77.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 25.3 40.3 41.6 83.9 46.6 39.6 29.3 43.3 60.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 29.3 48.3 40.0 98.3 56.8 47.3 30.5 42.8 57.0 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 24.7 30.6 29.2 71.3 39.5 36.3 26.2 38.0 52.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 59.6 62.9 52.6 108.1 62.7 51.7 42.7 53.7 65.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 49.2 41.6 34.0 85.2 48.6 42.8 30.7 42.5 56.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 46.1 63.4 56.4 92.7 52.4 45.7 47.7 61.4 76.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 48.4 50.6 41.4 104.8 61.1 49.5 33.0 43.0 54.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 29.8 35.4 32.3 73.8 40.6 37.9 30.2 42.4 56.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 32.2 45.9 38.3 93.8 53.7 46.1 32.2 43.5 55.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 38.4 61.4 48.1 107.9 62.7 51.4 39.0 50.9 64.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 44.8 42.9 42.1 95.7 56.0 46.5 27.8 38.4 50.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 53.8 55.2 41.6 101.6 59.5 50.9 35.1 47.4 61.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 27.4 39.8 39.0 92.4 54.1 45.5 27.5 37.4 48.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 27.1 40.6 39.8 86.3 48.4 41.0 30.4 41.9 54.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 64.2 86.8 55.0 104.0 60.0 50.4 65.2 78.4 92.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 43.2 37.0 33.3 85.4 49.6 43.3 26.7 37.3 49.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------