***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2013.-10.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 9999.0 5.8 6.8 1.5 70.7 66.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 5.2 5.3 6.5 1.6 73.0 68.6 1.5 3.1 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 7.3 7.4 6.5 1.6 73.4 68.6 3.8 5.3 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 2.0 1.9 4.3 1.4 69.5 65.8 -1.6 0.0 1.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 4.7 4.7 4.5 1.4 69.4 66.0 1.3 2.9 4.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 4.1 3.7 2.7 1.3 67.4 65.0 0.6 2.1 3.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 5.1 5.1 6.4 1.5 71.4 67.4 1.6 3.1 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 0.1 0.0 3.4 1.5 68.8 66.2 -3.7 -2.0 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 5.5 5.5 5.2 1.4 70.4 66.7 2.2 3.7 5.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 5.2 5.1 4.0 1.4 69.3 66.2 1.8 3.4 4.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 4.9 4.7 4.2 1.4 68.7 65.7 1.5 3.0 4.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 3.8 3.7 3.8 1.4 68.2 65.5 0.4 1.9 3.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 4.1 3.9 3.3 1.3 67.2 64.5 0.9 2.4 3.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 5.5 5.8 5.3 1.6 73.7 69.1 2.8 4.0 5.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 5.0 5.0 4.7 1.3 69.8 65.7 1.9 3.3 4.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 5.6 5.4 3.7 1.3 68.1 65.2 2.2 3.7 5.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 5.1 5.1 6.3 1.6 72.4 68.2 1.8 3.2 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 3.3 3.2 3.6 1.5 70.4 67.0 0.5 1.7 2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 5.2 5.5 6.5 1.7 74.2 69.6 1.9 3.3 4.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 1.2 1.0 2.5 1.6 69.5 67.0 -2.7 -1.0 0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 5.1 5.1 6.1 1.5 70.9 66.9 1.6 3.2 4.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 4.6 4.8 6.3 1.6 73.9 69.4 1.6 2.9 4.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 5.1 5.4 6.3 1.7 75.4 70.4 1.9 3.3 4.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 4.5 4.7 5.1 1.6 73.0 68.6 1.5 2.8 4.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 5.6 5.6 5.2 1.5 70.6 66.5 2.0 3.6 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 4.5 4.6 3.6 1.5 69.2 66.5 1.1 2.7 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 5.8 5.7 6.0 1.5 70.2 66.1 1.5 3.4 5.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 3.7 3.7 4.4 1.3 69.5 65.9 0.2 1.8 3.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 3.3 3.3 3.2 1.6 70.7 67.3 -0.4 1.3 2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 5.6 5.7 6.6 1.6 72.7 68.2 1.9 3.5 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------