***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2013.-17.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 3.5 4.3 0.1 51.8 51.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 3.0 2.8 4.0 0.3 54.9 54.4 0.8 2.4 3.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 5.0 4.8 4.1 0.3 54.9 54.1 2.9 4.4 5.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 -2.6 -0.5 1.9 0.1 51.0 50.5 -2.4 -0.6 1.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 2.4 1.9 2.2 0.0 50.5 50.5 0.5 1.9 3.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 1.6 1.5 0.6 0.3 54.2 53.5 -0.1 1.2 2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 2.9 2.5 3.9 0.2 53.1 52.9 0.9 2.3 3.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -2.1 -2.6 1.1 0.0 50.5 51.2 -4.1 -2.6 -1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 3.2 2.8 2.9 0.1 51.4 51.5 1.3 2.7 4.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 2.6 2.1 1.8 0.1 50.8 51.3 0.7 2.1 3.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 2.2 1.8 1.9 0.1 51.1 51.0 0.3 1.7 3.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 1.5 1.0 1.6 0.0 49.9 50.3 -0.3 1.0 2.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 1.8 1.2 1.1 -0.1 49.2 49.7 -0.1 1.2 2.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 3.5 3.5 3.0 0.5 56.4 55.8 1.8 3.0 4.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 2.3 2.0 2.5 0.3 54.1 52.4 0.4 1.7 2.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 2.9 2.4 1.4 0.0 50.6 50.5 1.1 2.4 3.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 2.7 2.5 3.9 0.3 53.8 53.8 1.0 2.2 3.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 1.0 0.7 1.3 0.1 51.1 52.0 -0.6 0.6 1.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 3.0 2.9 4.0 0.4 56.2 55.4 1.1 2.5 3.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 -1.2 -2.0 0.0 -0.1 49.1 51.1 -3.6 -1.9 -0.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 3.2 2.8 3.6 0.1 51.7 51.6 1.1 2.6 4.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 2.3 2.2 3.9 0.4 55.1 54.9 0.6 1.9 3.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 2.8 2.9 3.9 0.5 57.8 56.4 1.1 2.3 3.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 2.5 2.4 2.8 0.3 54.8 54.4 0.9 2.1 3.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 3.1 2.6 2.7 0.1 51.1 50.8 1.2 2.5 3.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 2.0 1.5 1.3 0.0 50.7 51.1 0.3 1.5 2.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 1.1 3.2 3.5 0.1 50.9 50.8 1.4 3.1 4.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 1.2 0.9 2.1 0.2 52.7 51.8 -0.7 0.6 1.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 1.0 0.5 0.9 0.1 50.8 52.2 -1.3 0.4 2.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 3.4 3.1 4.1 0.3 54.4 53.9 1.2 2.7 4.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------