***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2013.-10.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 9999.0 13.4 13.5 1.7 71.2 66.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 14.0 14.4 13.6 1.9 73.1 68.3 10.4 12.1 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 15.1 15.4 13.9 1.9 72.2 67.5 11.0 12.9 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 8.4 8.1 11.5 1.4 66.9 63.2 4.3 6.2 8.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 14.8 14.9 12.3 1.7 69.5 65.5 10.6 12.6 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 14.3 14.4 11.4 1.8 68.9 65.7 9.9 12.0 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 14.0 14.3 13.4 1.8 72.7 68.1 10.1 11.9 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 6.9 7.2 11.9 2.1 72.0 68.2 2.9 4.7 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 15.4 15.7 13.1 1.9 71.0 66.7 11.0 13.1 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 14.8 15.0 12.5 2.0 71.5 67.4 10.6 12.5 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 15.3 15.5 12.4 1.9 71.1 67.1 10.8 12.9 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 14.9 15.2 12.4 2.1 72.0 68.3 10.6 12.6 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 15.2 15.5 12.0 2.0 71.3 67.9 10.7 12.8 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 15.5 16.0 13.7 2.2 73.0 68.4 11.4 13.3 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 13.3 13.1 11.4 1.2 65.6 62.1 10.2 11.7 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 15.7 15.9 12.1 1.8 70.2 66.6 11.1 13.3 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 13.4 13.8 13.3 1.9 73.7 68.7 10.0 11.6 13.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 13.9 14.1 12.4 2.1 71.6 67.7 9.8 11.6 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 14.5 14.9 13.8 1.9 73.4 68.5 10.6 12.4 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 12.3 12.4 10.6 2.2 71.9 68.4 7.6 9.7 11.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 15.0 15.2 13.4 1.8 70.6 66.3 10.9 12.8 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 14.2 14.6 13.6 2.0 74.2 69.1 10.5 12.2 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 14.7 15.2 14.1 2.1 73.7 68.8 10.7 12.5 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 15.9 16.2 13.5 2.1 72.3 67.9 11.4 13.4 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 14.0 14.0 12.1 1.6 69.4 65.3 10.0 11.9 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 15.0 15.2 11.9 2.1 72.6 69.4 10.6 12.6 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 14.7 14.9 12.9 1.7 70.7 66.4 10.5 12.4 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 13.1 12.9 11.7 1.3 66.2 62.7 10.1 11.6 12.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 11.4 11.6 11.7 2.2 72.0 68.1 6.8 8.9 10.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 14.1 14.4 13.7 1.8 72.6 68.0 10.2 12.0 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------