***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2013.-17.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 11.3 10.6 0.4 55.5 56.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 7.6 11.0 10.5 0.5 56.9 56.9 8.0 10.1 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 8.8 12.1 10.9 0.5 56.4 56.8 9.2 11.3 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 6.6 5.9 8.7 0.1 51.8 53.3 3.5 5.7 7.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 12.4 11.8 9.3 0.2 52.9 54.3 9.4 11.5 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.3 8.3 0.3 53.1 53.8 8.9 11.0 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 7.6 10.8 10.4 0.5 56.6 56.7 8.0 10.0 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 2.1 4.3 8.5 0.3 53.4 54.4 2.4 4.0 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 9.4 12.4 10.0 0.4 54.4 55.4 9.8 11.9 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 12.0 11.6 9.2 0.3 54.0 55.1 9.2 11.1 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 12.6 12.1 9.2 0.3 53.1 54.4 9.6 11.7 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 9.2 11.9 9.0 0.2 52.9 54.1 9.5 11.5 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 12.3 11.9 8.7 0.3 53.2 54.3 9.6 11.5 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 9.1 12.8 10.4 0.6 56.9 56.9 9.5 11.9 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.3 8.9 0.2 52.3 53.3 7.6 9.1 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 13.0 12.4 8.9 0.2 52.4 53.8 10.0 12.1 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 7.4 10.5 10.3 0.5 57.0 56.7 7.7 9.7 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 11.1 10.8 9.0 0.4 54.8 55.6 8.5 10.3 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 8.0 11.6 10.8 0.6 57.2 57.2 8.5 10.7 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 9.4 9.1 7.2 0.4 54.5 55.1 6.6 8.6 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 12.4 12.0 10.4 0.4 54.6 55.6 9.3 11.5 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 7.9 11.2 10.5 0.5 57.0 56.7 8.2 10.3 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 8.1 11.6 11.0 0.6 57.6 57.4 8.6 10.7 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 9.6 12.9 10.2 0.5 56.1 56.5 10.0 12.1 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.2 10.9 9.3 0.3 54.2 55.3 8.4 10.4 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 11.5 11.3 8.7 0.5 55.8 55.9 9.1 10.7 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 8.8 11.8 10.0 0.4 55.2 56.0 9.1 11.2 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.8 8.9 0.1 51.4 52.7 8.1 9.6 11.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 5.8 8.7 8.3 0.5 55.3 55.8 6.1 8.1 9.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 7.8 11.0 10.7 0.5 56.6 56.8 8.2 10.2 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------