***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2013.-24.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 9.3 8.9 0.6 57.3 55.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.3 9.5 8.7 0.7 58.4 56.1 6.5 8.5 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 6.9 10.7 9.1 0.7 58.2 56.0 7.4 9.6 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 0.9 4.1 6.8 0.3 53.2 52.2 1.3 3.7 6.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 6.9 10.0 7.5 0.4 54.3 53.2 7.3 9.5 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 6.2 9.0 6.5 0.2 51.7 51.3 6.7 8.8 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.1 9.2 8.6 0.7 58.2 55.9 6.4 8.3 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 0.0 2.9 7.0 0.4 54.7 54.1 0.5 2.4 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 7.3 11.0 8.3 0.5 55.6 54.4 7.9 10.3 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 6.5 10.1 7.6 0.5 55.2 54.4 7.1 9.4 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 6.9 10.2 7.5 0.4 54.3 53.4 7.3 9.7 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 6.8 10.2 7.4 0.4 54.5 53.7 7.3 9.6 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 7.1 10.2 7.0 0.3 53.0 52.6 7.6 9.8 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 12.9 11.3 8.7 0.8 57.9 56.4 7.7 10.1 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 5.6 8.4 7.0 0.2 53.1 52.1 5.9 8.0 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 7.8 10.7 7.2 0.3 53.2 52.5 8.2 10.3 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 5.8 8.8 8.4 0.6 57.9 55.8 6.1 7.9 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 5.5 8.7 7.5 0.6 56.0 55.4 6.0 8.0 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 9.7 9.8 9.0 0.7 58.6 56.4 6.7 8.8 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 3.5 6.9 5.7 0.5 55.3 55.0 4.0 6.2 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 7.1 10.6 8.7 0.5 56.4 54.7 7.6 9.8 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 9.4 9.4 8.7 0.6 57.5 55.7 6.4 8.5 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 6.3 9.8 9.2 0.8 58.8 56.6 6.7 8.8 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 7.6 11.3 8.6 0.7 57.4 56.1 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 6.4 9.4 7.4 0.4 54.9 53.3 6.9 8.8 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 6.8 9.5 6.9 0.2 53.0 52.8 7.3 9.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 7.1 10.4 8.2 0.5 56.2 54.3 7.6 9.6 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.0 7.1 0.2 52.9 52.1 6.3 8.7 10.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 3.3 6.9 6.8 0.6 56.2 55.7 3.8 6.1 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 9.4 9.5 8.9 0.7 58.4 56.1 6.6 8.5 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------