***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2013.-24.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 9999.0 13.4 12.5 1.5 78.5 73.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 12.9 13.5 12.4 1.6 79.2 74.3 10.1 11.3 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 14.1 14.6 12.8 1.6 78.3 73.4 11.0 12.3 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 7.7 8.0 10.5 1.3 74.8 70.3 4.9 6.1 7.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 13.9 14.2 11.3 1.5 75.9 71.2 10.9 12.2 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 21 79 100 13.5 14.0 10.5 1.7 78.5 73.2 10.3 11.6 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 12.7 13.3 12.3 1.6 79.5 74.5 9.9 11.1 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 5.9 6.3 10.7 1.7 78.5 72.7 3.8 4.7 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 14.5 14.9 12.1 1.6 77.0 72.0 11.3 12.7 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 13.8 14.2 11.3 1.6 77.2 72.0 10.8 12.0 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 14.3 14.7 11.3 1.5 76.3 71.5 11.1 12.4 13.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 14.1 14.6 11.2 1.7 78.4 72.9 10.9 12.2 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 14.4 15.0 11.1 1.8 79.3 73.8 11.0 12.4 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 14.7 15.2 12.3 1.7 77.2 72.0 11.2 12.7 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 12.1 12.3 10.8 1.3 74.9 70.1 9.6 10.7 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 14.9 15.3 11.1 1.6 77.1 72.1 11.6 13.0 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 12.2 12.8 12.1 1.5 79.4 74.3 9.6 10.7 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 12.6 13.1 11.1 1.7 77.6 72.0 9.8 11.0 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 13.3 13.9 12.6 1.6 79.1 74.1 10.3 11.6 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 10.9 11.6 9.5 1.8 80.0 73.5 8.0 9.2 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 14.1 14.5 12.4 1.5 77.0 72.2 11.0 12.3 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 13.1 13.6 12.3 1.5 78.6 73.6 10.1 11.3 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 13.5 14.0 12.8 1.7 78.8 73.7 10.4 11.7 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 14.7 15.2 12.2 1.7 77.5 72.2 11.5 12.9 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 13.0 13.4 11.2 1.5 77.5 72.5 10.2 11.3 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 13.6 14.4 10.9 1.9 82.0 75.7 10.7 11.9 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 13.8 14.3 11.9 1.5 78.3 73.3 10.8 12.1 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 12.5 12.7 10.8 1.3 74.0 69.6 10.1 11.1 12.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 10.3 11.0 10.6 1.9 79.1 72.9 7.3 8.6 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 13.0 13.5 12.6 1.6 79.2 74.2 10.1 11.3 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------