***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2013.-03.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 9999.0 2.0 6.1 61.7 49.9 34.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 1.9 4.7 6.5 69.2 52.5 37.5 2.1 4.3 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 1.7 4.2 6.2 62.6 49.4 34.5 1.9 4.3 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 2.1 4.7 7.6 70.0 52.9 39.5 2.2 4.3 7.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 2.0 4.2 6.7 61.3 48.4 33.4 2.3 4.4 7.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 1.5 2.6 5.3 45.3 42.1 30.4 1.9 3.3 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 1.8 4.5 6.5 69.0 52.0 37.5 2.1 4.2 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 2.2 4.1 6.3 54.1 44.2 31.3 2.5 5.2 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 2.0 3.9 6.6 60.7 47.1 31.6 2.3 4.3 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 2.2 4.2 7.0 60.4 46.9 33.2 2.5 4.7 7.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 1.4 3.2 6.3 60.0 48.8 33.5 1.6 3.4 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 1.7 3.3 5.4 51.0 43.6 29.8 2.1 4.1 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 1.6 3.0 5.4 48.1 42.7 30.0 1.9 3.9 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 3.7 8.1 8.1 69.8 52.0 40.0 3.7 7.5 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 1.6 4.1 8.2 77.4 56.1 43.1 1.5 3.2 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 1.4 2.8 5.8 54.1 46.1 32.0 1.6 3.3 5.8 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 2.0 5.4 6.7 71.2 53.1 38.6 2.0 4.6 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 2.3 4.4 7.7 60.4 46.9 35.7 2.5 4.9 8.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 2.3 5.4 6.5 67.0 51.2 36.5 2.6 5.1 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 2.4 3.9 8.0 50.9 42.5 32.9 2.6 5.2 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 2.0 4.3 6.4 64.2 49.1 32.8 2.3 4.4 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 2.4 5.5 6.7 66.7 50.6 36.5 2.5 5.3 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 2.4 5.5 6.7 67.2 51.0 36.9 2.5 5.3 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 2.7 5.5 7.4 64.6 48.8 36.2 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 2.2 4.6 6.7 61.9 48.4 33.4 2.7 4.8 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 1.6 2.6 5.3 44.6 41.3 28.3 1.8 3.7 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 1.6 3.5 6.3 59.7 48.1 33.6 1.8 3.7 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 1.8 3.8 7.2 68.3 52.3 39.5 1.8 3.5 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 3.5 6.2 8.2 59.0 46.1 35.9 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 1.9 4.4 6.3 65.3 50.8 36.1 2.2 4.3 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------