***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2013.-10.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 7.8 8.8 67.1 51.5 37.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 4.4 9.8 9.2 72.8 53.8 39.9 4.3 8.6 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 4.3 8.3 9.0 66.5 50.8 38.3 4.1 8.1 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 3.5 7.8 9.3 60.6 48.0 34.9 3.6 8.4 16.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 3.5 6.6 9.0 59.5 46.6 34.7 3.7 7.4 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 3.1 6.1 9.9 62.8 48.4 38.3 3.5 6.4 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.8 8.3 9.1 73.1 53.8 39.2 3.3 7.1 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 5.5 11.6 10.2 66.0 49.5 38.5 5.3 11.8 22.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.7 6.3 9.2 60.6 47.0 35.4 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 4.2 7.2 10.1 64.5 48.5 37.8 4.0 7.7 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 3.4 6.2 8.4 59.0 46.4 35.5 3.7 7.2 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 3.9 7.6 8.6 61.4 47.8 36.6 4.4 8.2 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 3.9 7.4 9.0 58.7 45.6 35.9 4.5 8.7 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 14.3 12.6 12.1 75.1 54.5 42.8 6.3 10.9 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 2.7 6.8 10.3 65.7 51.7 38.5 2.7 6.3 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 3.2 6.2 8.4 57.8 45.6 35.2 3.5 7.4 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 4.0 10.1 9.7 77.6 56.2 41.1 3.8 8.0 14.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 13.1 10.3 12.0 70.7 51.2 41.1 5.5 9.9 15.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.6 8.5 9.4 73.4 54.3 40.4 3.4 7.3 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 14.9 12.0 14.4 73.8 53.1 42.8 5.4 10.7 18.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.5 6.4 8.9 62.4 48.6 36.2 3.3 6.8 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 3.7 9.5 10.1 78.1 55.9 41.0 3.7 7.7 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.3 9.1 10.0 73.7 55.0 41.2 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.0 9.0 10.9 70.1 52.0 41.1 4.5 8.4 13.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 2.9 7.0 9.5 64.3 49.2 35.6 3.2 7.2 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 3.5 7.5 9.6 66.2 50.8 39.3 3.6 7.5 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 3.5 7.8 9.5 68.5 51.5 37.2 3.6 7.4 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 2.4 5.4 9.3 61.6 49.0 36.7 2.4 5.8 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.9 15.0 13.4 73.5 52.6 42.4 7.1 13.7 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 3.6 7.7 9.0 70.4 52.6 38.9 3.3 7.1 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------