***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2013.-17.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 11.8 10.3 79.6 54.5 38.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 4.3 8.9 10.1 74.2 53.8 41.2 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 5.2 11.8 10.1 79.0 53.9 39.2 5.1 10.2 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 5.9 14.9 12.2 93.3 60.6 42.8 6.1 10.9 17.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 5.8 14.7 11.8 93.5 59.8 42.2 6.0 10.9 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 5.6 18.2 14.7 114.1 67.8 50.4 5.4 10.3 17.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 4.5 8.6 10.0 74.2 53.5 40.5 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 7.3 20.2 13.6 101.2 63.2 46.7 7.9 13.7 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 4.8 12.8 11.7 91.7 58.5 41.5 5.4 9.9 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 5.3 15.9 13.0 96.3 60.7 44.2 5.7 11.1 18.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 5.6 17.6 12.0 102.7 64.0 45.4 6.0 11.2 18.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 5.4 19.8 12.6 109.3 66.4 48.4 5.4 11.0 19.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 5.3 18.9 13.8 114.1 67.8 49.2 5.4 10.5 17.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 7.2 16.0 13.3 87.1 57.3 44.6 7.0 12.7 20.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 4.5 14.1 13.0 99.1 63.9 45.5 3.9 8.5 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 5.7 18.0 12.9 111.4 67.1 48.3 5.7 10.7 17.4 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.7 9.3 10.2 76.2 55.0 42.4 4.7 8.2 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 6.0 15.0 14.4 94.8 59.7 44.9 6.0 11.0 18.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 5.5 11.2 10.3 75.3 53.8 41.2 5.2 9.9 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 7.2 17.3 17.7 90.0 58.8 45.3 7.1 13.1 21.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 5.1 12.2 10.9 86.5 56.0 39.4 5.5 10.1 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.0 10.5 10.9 77.7 55.2 43.9 4.6 8.9 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 5.7 11.1 10.8 78.6 54.6 41.7 5.3 9.7 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 4.8 12.3 12.5 89.4 57.7 43.4 4.7 9.5 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 4.6 10.0 11.4 83.0 55.5 39.7 4.7 8.5 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 5.1 17.4 13.7 109.6 67.0 49.1 4.7 9.6 16.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 4.3 9.7 10.9 79.6 54.2 39.2 4.5 8.4 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 4.7 15.5 13.0 102.6 64.6 46.2 4.4 9.1 16.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 9.0 20.8 15.9 93.1 59.3 45.5 9.0 15.9 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 4.2 8.9 10.0 74.2 53.3 40.0 3.9 7.9 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------