***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2013.-24.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 6.1 9.4 88.2 59.4 47.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 2.8 9.7 9.3 97.2 62.6 48.2 2.6 5.9 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.2 10.2 9.5 91.2 60.3 47.3 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.8 14.3 10.7 89.8 60.2 47.0 5.4 10.3 17.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.9 10.7 9.8 84.9 59.1 46.3 3.9 7.9 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 14.7 15.4 10.2 88.2 59.9 47.7 6.3 11.4 18.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 3.1 9.8 9.2 96.4 62.9 48.9 2.9 6.1 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 21.1 21.8 10.7 87.9 60.2 47.6 8.2 15.5 26.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.0 10.2 9.9 84.8 58.3 45.4 3.6 7.6 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.5 11.6 10.7 87.8 59.7 47.2 3.7 8.0 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 13.2 13.5 9.1 85.6 59.5 46.8 5.0 9.8 16.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 5.4 13.9 9.1 86.3 59.7 46.9 4.5 9.7 17.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 15.0 15.7 9.5 86.3 59.6 48.1 5.9 11.4 19.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.8 16.4 11.0 88.9 60.0 48.2 6.0 11.8 19.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 5.4 16.2 11.7 94.5 61.7 46.2 4.6 10.3 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 12.7 13.4 9.2 86.4 59.7 47.0 5.3 9.9 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 3.6 11.1 9.1 101.4 63.9 47.9 3.7 7.1 11.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.8 14.5 12.2 89.1 60.5 48.3 4.8 10.0 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 4.0 11.4 9.4 96.9 62.4 48.2 3.9 7.6 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 15.9 16.0 14.9 86.0 59.6 47.9 4.9 11.0 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.0 9.7 9.5 85.2 57.7 44.8 3.8 7.4 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 4.2 12.5 9.4 101.4 63.7 48.0 4.5 8.2 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.8 10.2 9.7 94.9 61.6 48.1 3.6 7.0 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.5 13.2 10.9 89.9 60.6 48.3 4.0 8.7 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.2 9.5 10.8 91.4 60.4 48.2 3.6 6.9 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 6.6 15.4 9.7 84.3 58.9 46.3 5.6 11.4 19.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 9.2 9.4 10.3 90.4 60.1 48.1 3.5 6.7 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 12.8 13.4 10.9 91.7 60.9 46.6 4.8 9.4 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 21.0 22.1 13.3 87.9 60.4 48.5 8.1 15.6 26.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 3.6 10.0 9.4 94.6 62.0 48.5 3.3 6.6 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------