***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2013.-24.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 9999.0 33.1 34.6 74.2 41.6 38.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 24.6 32.8 35.1 77.7 44.8 41.8 24.7 37.0 51.7 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 29.2 37.1 34.8 74.6 40.7 37.8 32.0 43.8 57.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 33.0 46.0 39.8 77.8 44.6 39.3 37.1 50.2 65.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 29.5 37.8 37.3 74.3 39.7 35.7 33.7 44.6 56.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 29.1 36.6 40.1 77.3 41.4 38.3 31.5 42.5 55.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 20.4 27.9 34.7 77.5 44.5 41.5 20.1 32.2 47.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 46.6 59.9 40.9 77.3 41.6 37.3 51.3 68.5 88.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 27.8 34.4 37.4 74.1 38.6 35.0 31.1 41.5 52.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 31.5 40.0 40.9 77.1 40.6 36.6 34.9 46.7 60.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 29.0 38.5 35.8 76.1 41.1 36.7 32.6 44.9 58.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 31.5 41.5 35.7 76.4 41.2 36.8 35.1 48.7 64.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 32.3 40.9 37.7 75.9 39.8 36.5 35.7 49.0 63.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 46.9 56.6 44.6 80.4 43.2 40.3 48.8 62.0 76.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 26.0 42.2 43.2 83.5 49.0 42.7 28.2 43.0 61.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 24.4 33.3 36.2 76.4 41.1 37.1 27.4 40.8 57.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 43.9 34.8 35.7 80.6 47.6 44.1 24.0 36.9 52.3 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 37.5 45.9 46.4 79.0 41.5 37.7 40.2 52.0 65.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 27.8 36.4 35.6 77.6 43.9 41.1 28.6 41.3 56.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 45.5 54.0 55.1 76.0 40.4 37.4 47.8 62.2 77.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 27.3 35.1 35.7 74.4 39.7 36.0 30.9 41.6 53.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 47.9 39.3 37.2 80.2 47.4 44.2 28.5 41.3 56.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 29.9 37.2 37.2 78.3 43.2 40.4 30.4 41.9 55.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 33.0 41.9 41.7 78.5 41.5 38.1 35.7 48.5 62.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 24.4 32.6 38.4 75.1 41.7 38.0 27.2 38.4 51.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 31.3 40.2 38.4 76.0 40.2 36.2 34.8 47.7 62.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 22.9 29.7 37.0 74.7 41.7 38.9 24.0 35.4 49.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 25.6 37.8 40.4 80.4 46.1 40.5 28.5 40.8 54.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 58.1 69.2 50.8 78.9 41.6 38.3 61.8 77.0 93.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 23.2 30.6 34.5 75.7 43.0 40.3 24.1 35.8 49.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------