***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2019.-10.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 1.5 2.7 4.7 -1.0 37.7 42.0 2.2 3.8 5.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 1.0 1.8 4.1 -1.1 36.1 41.2 1.5 3.1 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 3.2 4.4 4.9 -0.9 38.9 43.1 3.8 5.3 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 -2.2 -1.2 2.2 -1.1 37.1 41.9 -1.6 0.0 1.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 0.7 1.9 3.3 -0.9 39.9 44.4 1.3 2.9 4.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 0.2 1.7 1.6 -0.4 44.6 50.4 0.6 2.1 3.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 1.1 2.0 4.2 -1.1 37.4 42.0 1.6 3.1 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -4.2 -2.9 1.4 -0.7 40.4 47.9 -3.7 -2.0 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 1.6 2.8 3.4 -0.8 40.0 44.9 2.2 3.7 5.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 1.3 2.5 2.0 -0.8 40.0 46.5 1.8 3.4 4.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 1.0 2.1 2.8 -0.8 40.0 46.2 1.5 3.0 4.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 -0.1 1.2 2.3 -0.7 41.8 48.6 0.4 1.9 3.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 0.4 2.0 2.4 -0.4 45.2 51.4 0.9 2.4 3.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 2.3 3.1 3.0 -0.9 37.9 44.0 2.8 4.0 5.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 1.4 2.3 3.5 -0.9 37.6 41.8 1.9 3.3 4.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 1.8 3.0 2.5 -0.6 42.3 48.2 2.2 3.7 5.2 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 1.3 2.0 3.7 -1.3 34.5 40.4 1.8 3.2 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 0.0 1.0 1.5 -0.8 39.9 46.9 0.5 1.7 2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 1.3 2.2 4.2 -1.1 36.8 41.8 1.9 3.3 4.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 -3.2 -1.7 0.5 -0.6 42.3 49.6 -2.7 -1.0 0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 1.0 2.3 4.4 -0.8 39.8 43.9 1.6 3.2 4.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 1.1 1.7 3.9 -1.2 34.4 40.7 1.6 2.9 4.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 1.3 2.4 4.4 -0.9 38.3 43.2 1.9 3.3 4.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 1.0 2.1 3.0 -0.8 39.8 45.5 1.5 2.8 4.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 1.4 2.5 4.0 -1.0 38.3 42.3 2.0 3.6 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 0.7 2.3 2.2 -0.4 44.8 50.7 1.1 2.7 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 0.8 2.2 4.5 -1.0 38.9 42.7 1.5 3.4 5.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 -0.3 0.8 2.5 -0.9 38.8 43.5 0.2 1.8 3.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 -1.0 0.3 0.9 -0.8 39.4 47.1 -0.4 1.3 2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 1.3 2.4 4.5 -1.0 37.5 42.0 1.9 3.5 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------