***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2019.-24.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 3.7 3.7 5.1 0.4 56.9 56.1 2.3 3.3 4.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 3.0 2.8 4.5 0.2 53.3 53.5 1.5 2.6 3.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 5.1 5.1 5.2 0.4 57.4 56.7 3.7 4.7 5.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 0.0 0.3 2.7 0.5 60.3 58.9 -1.4 -0.3 0.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 2.5 2.7 3.5 0.5 59.8 58.8 1.2 2.1 3.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 2.5 2.5 1.9 1.0 69.6 67.5 0.6 1.4 2.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 3.0 2.8 4.6 0.2 54.0 54.0 1.6 2.6 3.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 -1.2 -1.5 1.9 0.7 64.6 63.7 -3.3 -2.3 -1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 3.3 3.5 3.6 0.5 59.4 58.7 2.0 3.0 3.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 3.5 3.1 2.4 0.6 62.8 62.0 1.6 2.5 3.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 2.4 2.7 3.0 0.5 60.5 60.0 1.2 2.1 3.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 2.3 2.0 2.5 0.7 63.9 63.1 0.4 1.3 2.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 2.7 2.5 2.4 0.9 66.4 64.8 0.8 1.6 2.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 3.6 3.7 3.4 0.5 59.4 58.6 2.4 3.2 4.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 2.9 3.1 3.8 0.6 61.8 59.7 1.6 2.5 3.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 3.8 3.6 2.6 0.7 64.0 62.7 1.9 2.8 3.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 3.0 2.7 4.2 0.0 50.9 51.8 1.6 2.6 3.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 1.7 1.5 1.9 0.8 64.9 63.4 0.1 0.9 1.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 3.1 3.0 4.6 0.2 55.0 54.8 1.7 2.7 3.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 -0.6 -0.6 1.1 1.0 68.7 66.5 -2.9 -1.8 -0.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 3.1 3.1 4.6 0.4 58.2 57.4 1.7 2.7 3.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 2.5 2.3 4.3 0.1 52.3 52.9 1.2 2.1 3.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 2.9 3.0 4.7 0.4 57.5 57.0 1.7 2.6 3.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 3.0 2.6 3.2 0.5 60.9 59.9 1.4 2.1 2.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 3.2 3.4 4.4 0.5 58.6 57.2 2.1 2.9 3.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 2.9 2.9 2.3 0.9 67.6 65.9 1.1 2.0 2.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 3.5 3.6 4.8 0.4 57.9 56.7 1.9 3.1 4.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 1.5 1.8 2.9 0.6 61.7 60.2 0.3 1.2 2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 1.9 1.6 1.5 0.7 64.3 63.0 -0.4 0.7 1.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 3.4 3.3 4.8 0.3 55.0 54.8 1.9 3.0 4.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------