***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2019.-03.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 15.7 14.9 14.6 0.0 50.3 50.2 13.0 14.9 16.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 15.0 14.0 14.5 -0.4 45.8 46.5 12.8 14.4 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 16.0 15.0 14.9 -0.3 47.1 47.7 13.4 15.3 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 9.6 10.4 12.3 1.1 61.6 59.3 6.7 8.9 11.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 15.8 15.3 13.5 0.1 50.9 50.6 13.3 15.2 17.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 15.3 16.1 13.3 1.2 62.0 60.6 12.8 14.7 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 14.7 13.3 13.9 -0.7 42.1 43.3 12.5 14.1 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 8.0 7.9 12.9 0.4 54.5 54.2 6.0 7.5 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 16.1 15.5 14.4 0.0 50.3 50.2 13.5 15.4 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 15.7 15.3 13.4 0.2 52.0 51.9 13.1 15.1 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 16.1 15.7 14.3 0.2 52.4 52.1 13.4 15.5 17.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 15.7 15.8 13.6 0.6 56.1 55.5 13.1 15.1 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 16.0 16.2 14.6 0.6 56.8 55.9 13.5 15.5 17.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.3 14.2 13.8 -1.0 39.9 42.1 13.2 15.4 17.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 14.5 15.5 14.7 1.4 65.8 62.9 12.4 14.0 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 16.7 16.9 14.2 0.6 56.8 55.9 14.2 16.1 17.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 14.2 12.6 13.4 -0.9 39.3 41.0 12.0 13.5 15.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 14.9 13.7 12.6 -0.3 46.8 47.9 12.1 14.1 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 15.3 14.2 14.7 -0.4 45.7 46.5 12.9 14.6 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 13.1 12.5 11.5 0.1 50.8 51.5 10.6 12.4 14.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 15.8 15.0 14.7 -0.2 47.8 48.2 13.4 15.2 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 12.2 13.0 13.4 -1.2 36.8 39.0 12.6 14.3 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 15.5 14.0 14.6 -0.6 43.0 44.3 12.9 14.7 16.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 16.4 14.8 14.0 -0.6 43.6 45.1 13.5 15.5 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 14.9 14.3 13.6 0.0 49.7 49.5 12.6 14.3 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 15.5 15.5 12.9 0.4 55.0 54.8 13.3 15.0 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 15.6 14.8 14.0 -0.2 48.0 48.2 13.2 15.0 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 15.1 16.1 13.6 1.3 64.2 61.6 12.6 14.5 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 12.2 11.0 12.2 -0.3 46.6 47.8 9.3 11.4 13.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 15.0 14.1 14.6 -0.3 47.1 47.5 12.7 14.4 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------