***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2019.-10.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9.7 11.6 11.7 -0.6 43.2 44.7 10.5 12.4 14.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 9.8 11.2 11.5 -0.9 40.5 43.1 10.4 12.1 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 10.4 12.1 12.0 -0.7 43.2 45.0 11.0 12.9 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 3.6 6.0 9.1 -0.2 47.7 47.0 4.3 6.2 8.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 10.2 11.9 10.4 -0.6 43.6 45.8 10.6 12.6 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 9.4 12.1 10.1 0.0 50.4 51.9 9.9 12.0 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 9.5 10.7 11.2 -1.0 38.7 42.1 10.1 11.9 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 2.6 4.2 9.7 -0.5 44.7 47.8 2.9 4.7 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 10.5 12.3 11.2 -0.7 43.2 45.6 11.0 13.1 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 10.2 11.9 10.3 -0.6 44.4 47.0 10.6 12.5 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 10.3 12.1 10.8 -0.7 43.3 46.0 10.8 12.9 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 10.2 11.9 10.3 -0.5 44.6 47.8 10.6 12.6 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 10.3 12.3 10.9 -0.4 45.9 49.3 10.7 12.8 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 11.1 12.2 11.0 -1.1 39.8 43.9 11.4 13.3 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 9.6 11.6 10.7 -0.1 48.9 47.3 10.2 11.7 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 10.5 12.7 10.6 -0.5 45.1 47.7 11.1 13.3 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 9.5 10.5 10.9 -1.1 37.7 41.7 10.0 11.6 13.1 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 9.3 10.9 9.9 -0.8 42.8 46.2 9.8 11.6 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 10.0 11.5 11.7 -0.8 41.3 43.7 10.6 12.4 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.3 9.0 8.5 -0.6 44.4 48.1 7.6 9.7 11.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 10.4 12.0 11.6 -0.7 42.8 45.1 10.9 12.8 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 10.0 11.1 11.0 -1.0 38.1 42.1 10.5 12.2 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 10.2 11.6 11.8 -0.9 41.0 43.9 10.7 12.5 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 11.0 12.5 11.2 -0.8 42.0 45.1 11.4 13.4 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 9.5 11.1 10.5 -0.6 43.2 44.6 10.0 11.9 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 10.1 12.1 10.0 -0.4 45.7 49.4 10.6 12.6 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 9.9 11.5 11.1 -0.7 41.9 44.0 10.5 12.4 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 9.6 11.5 10.0 -0.1 49.1 48.1 10.1 11.6 12.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 6.3 7.9 9.3 -0.9 41.8 46.0 6.8 8.9 10.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 9.6 11.1 11.6 -0.8 41.2 43.5 10.2 12.0 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------