***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2019.-17.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 12.1 12.5 10.6 0.8 59.1 57.5 9.2 11.4 13.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 11.0 11.1 10.4 0.7 58.0 57.0 8.0 10.1 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 12.2 12.2 10.8 0.6 57.2 56.0 9.2 11.3 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 6.5 6.4 7.9 0.5 55.7 54.3 3.5 5.7 7.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 12.2 12.2 9.1 0.6 56.3 55.3 9.4 11.5 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 13.2 12.5 9.1 1.3 62.8 60.6 8.9 11.0 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 10.8 11.0 10.4 0.7 58.8 57.8 8.0 10.0 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 4.6 4.9 9.0 0.9 59.6 58.5 2.4 4.0 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 12.6 12.8 9.8 0.7 57.4 56.2 9.8 11.9 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 11.8 12.2 9.5 0.9 59.6 58.2 9.2 11.1 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 12.4 12.7 9.5 0.8 58.3 57.0 9.6 11.7 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 12.3 12.6 9.5 0.9 59.4 58.4 9.5 11.5 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 13.7 13.0 9.5 1.3 63.0 61.6 9.6 11.5 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.8 12.9 10.1 0.7 57.4 56.4 9.5 11.9 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 9.7 9.5 8.5 0.3 54.3 53.3 7.6 9.1 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.9 13.4 9.4 1.0 60.9 59.1 10.0 12.1 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 10.4 10.5 10.1 0.6 57.5 56.8 7.7 9.7 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 11.0 11.5 9.7 1.2 61.6 60.0 8.5 10.3 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 11.5 11.6 10.6 0.6 57.4 56.4 8.5 10.7 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 10.7 10.1 8.3 1.4 63.3 62.0 6.6 8.6 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 12.2 12.2 10.2 0.6 56.4 55.3 9.3 11.5 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 11.2 11.1 10.1 0.5 56.3 55.7 8.2 10.3 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 11.5 11.4 10.8 0.6 56.6 55.7 8.6 10.7 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 12.9 13.3 10.3 0.9 58.8 57.5 10.0 12.1 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 11.1 11.2 9.1 0.6 57.6 55.9 8.4 10.4 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 12.7 12.0 9.3 1.2 63.1 62.3 9.1 10.7 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.0 12.4 10.2 0.9 60.1 58.2 9.1 11.2 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.2 10.2 8.3 0.5 56.0 54.5 8.1 9.6 11.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 10.2 9.4 9.3 1.2 62.0 60.7 6.1 8.1 9.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 11.0 11.2 10.5 0.7 58.3 57.2 8.2 10.2 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------