***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2019.-24.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 11.4 11.1 10.0 1.4 66.4 61.9 6.9 9.1 11.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 9.2 10.0 9.8 1.1 63.5 60.4 6.5 8.5 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 10.5 11.5 10.4 1.2 64.6 60.8 7.4 9.6 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 4.7 5.8 7.4 1.3 65.1 60.6 1.3 3.7 6.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.3 11.4 8.7 1.4 65.3 60.7 7.3 9.5 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.7 11.0 8.4 1.7 67.7 61.7 6.7 8.8 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 9.0 10.0 9.8 1.2 64.6 60.8 6.4 8.3 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 3.1 4.2 8.5 1.5 66.5 61.6 0.5 2.4 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.2 12.4 9.5 1.4 65.6 60.9 7.9 10.3 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.3 11.6 9.1 1.6 66.3 61.4 7.1 9.4 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.6 11.9 9.0 1.5 66.6 61.6 7.3 9.7 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 10.5 11.9 8.8 1.5 66.9 61.9 7.3 9.6 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 10.6 12.3 8.7 1.7 68.3 62.8 7.6 9.8 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 11.1 11.8 9.7 1.1 61.6 58.6 7.7 10.1 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 8.8 9.8 7.9 1.2 64.5 60.7 5.9 8.0 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 11.2 12.5 8.8 1.7 67.4 61.8 8.2 10.3 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 8.6 9.3 9.5 1.0 62.4 59.3 6.1 7.9 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 8.8 9.8 9.2 1.5 65.2 60.8 6.0 8.0 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 9.6 10.4 10.0 1.1 62.9 59.9 6.7 8.8 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 7.0 8.3 7.5 1.5 65.7 61.6 4.0 6.2 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 10.6 11.7 9.8 1.3 65.2 60.7 7.6 9.8 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 9.2 9.8 9.4 0.9 60.8 58.1 6.4 8.5 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.6 10.2 10.3 1.0 62.0 59.0 6.7 8.8 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.3 12.2 9.8 1.3 63.9 60.0 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 11.0 10.7 8.6 1.3 65.9 61.2 6.9 8.8 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 11.2 11.3 8.4 1.6 68.5 63.5 7.3 9.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 11.9 11.7 9.6 1.4 66.7 61.8 7.6 9.6 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.6 10.7 7.8 1.3 64.9 60.4 6.3 8.7 10.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 6.9 8.1 8.6 1.5 64.8 60.7 3.8 6.1 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 9.2 10.2 9.9 1.2 64.4 60.9 6.6 8.5 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------