***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2019.-24.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 10.4 12.4 11.7 0.4 56.9 55.8 10.6 11.9 13.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 9.8 11.5 11.5 0.1 52.4 52.6 10.1 11.3 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 10.8 12.6 12.0 0.2 54.1 53.9 11.0 12.3 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.9 9.2 0.7 61.4 58.7 4.9 6.1 7.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 12.7 12.6 10.4 0.3 55.8 55.4 10.9 12.2 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 13.2 12.9 10.2 1.1 67.0 63.8 10.3 11.6 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 9.5 11.1 11.3 0.1 50.9 51.5 9.9 11.1 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 5.0 5.2 10.0 0.6 59.6 59.0 3.8 4.7 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 13.2 13.2 11.2 0.4 56.2 55.7 11.3 12.7 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 12.5 12.7 10.6 0.5 58.6 57.8 10.8 12.0 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 13.0 13.0 10.9 0.5 57.5 57.0 11.1 12.4 13.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 12.7 13.0 10.6 0.6 60.1 59.3 10.9 12.2 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 13.9 13.4 10.9 0.8 63.0 61.3 11.0 12.4 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 10.9 12.6 11.2 0.0 49.3 51.0 11.2 12.7 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 11.1 11.5 10.5 0.7 62.8 59.4 9.6 10.7 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 14.4 13.9 10.7 0.7 61.4 59.8 11.6 13.0 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 9.3 10.6 11.0 -0.1 48.1 49.7 9.6 10.7 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.5 10.4 0.4 56.6 56.5 9.8 11.0 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 10.1 11.8 11.7 0.1 52.3 52.6 10.3 11.6 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 10.6 9.9 8.9 0.6 59.7 59.2 8.0 9.2 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.9 12.6 11.6 0.3 54.3 54.2 11.0 12.3 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 9.8 11.1 11.0 -0.2 46.2 48.6 10.1 11.3 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 10.2 11.7 11.9 0.0 50.5 51.5 10.4 11.7 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.4 13.1 11.3 0.2 53.1 53.6 11.5 12.9 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.7 10.4 0.3 55.9 55.1 10.2 11.3 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 13.2 12.7 10.1 0.7 62.3 61.3 10.7 11.9 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.6 12.5 11.2 0.3 56.1 55.2 10.8 12.1 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 11.5 11.9 9.9 0.8 63.1 60.0 10.1 11.1 12.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 9.1 9.1 9.9 0.4 56.1 56.4 7.3 8.6 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 9.8 11.5 11.6 0.2 53.6 53.5 10.1 11.3 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------