***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2019.-10.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 17.0 20.8 20.7 153.4 78.4 59.8 4.9 9.0 14.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 18.2 21.1 18.4 145.5 76.6 58.9 4.3 8.6 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 16.8 19.8 19.5 147.1 77.0 59.7 4.1 8.1 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 20.3 26.0 22.9 150.7 77.7 61.1 3.6 8.4 16.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 15.1 20.0 21.2 156.1 78.9 62.1 3.7 7.4 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 11.9 13.4 18.8 136.8 74.5 60.3 3.5 6.4 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 16.2 19.2 18.6 146.9 76.9 58.6 3.3 7.1 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 27.3 40.1 23.1 167.1 81.2 62.7 5.3 11.8 22.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 13.5 18.3 20.9 157.9 79.3 62.2 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 14.9 20.4 21.8 161.6 80.2 62.7 4.0 7.7 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 14.3 19.3 21.1 160.1 79.7 63.6 3.7 7.2 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 16.0 21.8 21.4 164.1 80.5 63.8 4.4 8.2 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 16.8 19.6 19.7 139.8 75.2 61.0 4.5 8.7 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 6.6 22.7 21.8 140.6 75.5 59.1 6.3 10.9 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 3.5 17.5 22.1 138.4 75.0 58.1 2.7 6.3 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 15.5 18.7 19.7 146.0 76.6 61.5 3.5 7.4 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 18.1 19.1 17.5 134.6 74.0 57.8 3.8 8.0 14.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 18.4 23.6 22.2 156.2 79.2 61.2 5.5 9.9 15.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 16.2 19.1 18.4 144.6 76.4 59.0 3.4 7.3 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 22.2 30.0 28.6 160.9 80.2 61.5 5.4 10.7 18.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 14.3 18.4 20.8 153.8 78.4 61.2 3.3 6.8 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 16.2 16.9 17.9 129.4 72.6 57.9 3.7 7.7 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 16.0 19.3 19.1 146.0 76.8 59.4 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 16.3 19.4 20.7 146.5 76.9 59.7 4.5 8.4 13.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 17.1 21.3 22.9 150.1 77.7 60.5 3.2 7.2 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 15.4 18.5 20.9 145.6 76.6 61.7 3.6 7.5 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 15.8 19.7 21.8 154.0 78.5 60.6 3.6 7.4 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 13.3 16.3 21.0 144.7 76.4 59.7 2.4 5.8 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 27.5 34.8 23.8 154.7 78.8 61.0 7.1 13.7 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 15.4 18.3 18.9 148.8 77.3 59.2 3.3 7.1 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------