***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2019.-17.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 4.1 12.3 13.2 105.2 65.7 45.0 4.1 7.6 12.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 3.8 13.3 12.2 106.4 66.2 47.2 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 4.8 17.6 12.8 105.7 65.9 45.1 5.1 10.2 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 6.1 16.9 14.2 102.8 64.9 47.5 6.1 10.9 17.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 6.3 15.9 12.9 95.6 62.6 45.7 6.0 10.9 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 6.1 13.5 10.7 85.4 58.1 45.5 5.4 10.3 17.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 4.1 12.1 12.0 102.9 64.8 46.8 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 8.0 17.7 12.3 86.5 58.6 44.3 7.9 13.7 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 5.3 14.0 12.9 93.4 61.7 45.5 5.4 9.9 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 6.1 15.3 12.7 88.6 59.5 44.7 5.7 11.1 18.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 6.4 15.2 11.2 88.0 59.5 44.4 6.0 11.2 18.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 6.0 14.6 10.8 83.7 57.7 44.1 5.4 11.0 19.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 6.1 13.3 11.1 82.6 56.8 44.4 5.4 10.5 17.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 6.7 20.8 15.4 106.3 66.1 47.4 7.0 12.7 20.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 4.7 15.5 14.8 104.9 66.3 48.8 3.9 8.5 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 6.4 14.1 11.0 87.1 59.0 44.8 5.7 10.7 17.4 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 4.6 12.3 11.8 101.0 64.7 48.4 4.7 8.2 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 6.1 15.6 13.9 92.9 61.1 45.3 6.0 11.0 18.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 4.8 16.9 12.4 108.7 66.9 47.2 5.2 9.9 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 7.4 20.0 18.4 99.7 63.7 47.6 7.1 13.1 21.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 5.3 15.4 12.8 97.9 63.5 44.9 5.5 10.1 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 4.5 14.6 12.3 102.9 65.4 49.0 4.6 8.9 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 4.8 16.1 12.9 110.1 67.3 47.2 5.3 9.7 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 5.0 15.1 13.7 98.7 63.4 45.4 4.7 9.5 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 4.8 13.0 14.2 101.3 64.5 46.0 4.7 8.5 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 5.3 13.8 12.0 88.3 60.0 45.8 4.7 9.6 16.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 4.5 13.3 13.4 101.8 64.5 45.4 4.5 8.4 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 5.1 15.3 13.0 100.4 64.3 47.9 4.4 9.1 16.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 9.1 23.0 15.6 98.1 63.0 46.5 9.0 15.9 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 3.8 13.9 12.6 106.9 66.3 46.4 3.9 7.9 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------