***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2019.-24.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9.4 14.1 14.4 123.1 71.1 54.5 3.9 7.2 12.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 8.3 14.5 14.5 132.3 73.5 53.3 2.6 5.9 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 9.6 14.4 14.0 122.9 70.9 54.4 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.8 18.5 14.8 112.0 68.0 55.6 5.4 10.3 17.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 11.0 14.4 14.0 111.1 67.7 55.0 3.9 7.9 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 15.2 17.5 12.8 100.5 64.3 52.8 6.3 11.4 18.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 8.5 13.8 14.1 130.2 73.1 52.5 2.9 6.1 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 21.1 26.5 14.7 107.7 66.4 55.1 8.2 15.5 26.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.2 14.0 14.2 110.2 67.3 54.5 3.6 7.6 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.5 14.8 14.8 109.0 66.7 54.7 3.7 8.0 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 13.2 17.4 13.7 110.5 67.5 55.4 5.0 9.8 16.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.9 17.8 13.4 108.2 66.7 54.9 4.5 9.7 17.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 6.6 19.6 13.9 107.8 66.6 55.0 5.9 11.4 19.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.8 22.5 16.4 119.7 70.0 53.6 6.0 11.8 19.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 14.9 21.9 15.8 115.6 69.5 56.2 4.6 10.3 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 5.8 16.6 13.4 108.5 66.8 54.5 5.3 9.9 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.6 14.6 14.3 128.5 72.6 52.3 3.7 7.1 11.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 14.1 17.8 15.2 109.3 66.6 53.6 4.8 10.0 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 10.0 16.1 14.4 132.0 73.4 54.0 3.9 7.6 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 16.1 19.4 18.3 102.5 64.7 54.0 4.9 11.0 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 10.3 13.9 13.8 114.9 68.7 54.4 3.8 7.4 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 11.0 16.6 15.2 130.8 73.1 53.1 4.5 8.2 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.3 14.5 14.2 127.8 72.3 54.3 3.6 7.0 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.5 18.2 15.1 119.3 69.7 54.4 4.0 8.7 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 9.0 12.9 15.4 119.2 69.9 55.4 3.6 6.9 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 16.0 20.5 14.4 108.2 67.1 55.9 5.6 11.4 19.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 8.8 13.2 14.9 122.0 70.8 54.3 3.5 6.7 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 12.8 16.5 13.8 109.7 67.4 54.8 4.8 9.4 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 21.0 26.0 15.8 106.0 65.6 53.2 8.1 15.6 26.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 8.7 14.6 14.5 132.0 73.4 53.7 3.3 6.6 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------