***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2019.-24.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 56.2 66.7 68.0 147.2 79.3 69.3 24.3 35.9 49.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 58.5 71.8 64.5 151.0 80.5 70.6 24.7 37.0 51.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 62.4 72.4 65.0 144.6 78.6 68.4 32.0 43.8 57.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 55.1 75.6 70.4 133.0 74.6 66.2 37.1 50.2 65.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 44 56 100 58.1 66.7 67.1 136.6 76.1 67.9 33.7 44.6 56.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 47.3 59.6 59.2 123.1 70.7 64.1 31.5 42.5 55.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 54.8 67.0 63.9 148.5 79.9 70.1 20.1 32.2 47.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 91.5 103.2 71.8 134.0 75.4 67.8 51.3 68.5 88.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 43 57 100 54.5 62.1 66.8 136.5 76.1 67.4 31.1 41.5 52.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 63.0 70.7 69.8 134.7 75.8 67.6 34.9 46.7 60.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 44 56 100 60.8 69.9 65.2 135.0 75.6 67.8 32.6 44.9 58.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 67.3 76.4 65.0 133.2 74.9 67.8 35.1 48.7 64.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 67.7 72.3 64.6 128.2 72.8 66.7 35.7 49.0 63.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 81.0 92.3 76.6 142.3 79.2 69.0 48.8 62.0 76.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 48.9 70.6 69.1 128.6 72.7 64.2 28.2 43.0 61.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 60.3 68.4 64.1 132.1 74.5 67.7 27.4 40.8 57.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 59.6 70.5 63.2 144.4 78.9 70.4 24.0 36.9 52.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 69.7 76.2 73.5 136.1 76.6 68.2 40.2 52.0 65.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 63.2 76.4 64.8 151.0 80.7 70.4 28.6 41.3 56.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 81.2 90.1 90.7 134.2 75.8 67.7 47.8 62.2 77.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 56.1 63.9 66.2 139.3 76.7 67.5 30.9 41.6 53.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 63.8 73.9 65.3 142.7 78.9 69.9 28.5 41.3 56.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 60.3 72.0 65.7 148.8 80.3 69.7 30.4 41.9 55.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 68.4 77.1 70.2 140.0 77.8 68.5 35.7 48.5 62.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 55.3 63.5 72.9 140.7 77.4 68.1 27.2 38.4 51.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 52.5 69.5 65.9 126.2 72.0 66.1 34.8 47.7 62.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 55.0 64.7 70.4 145.3 78.9 69.2 24.0 35.4 49.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 45.4 63.4 64.9 129.9 73.4 65.1 28.5 40.8 54.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 98.5 106.6 78.4 135.3 76.4 68.2 61.8 77.0 93.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 54.9 67.6 64.9 149.8 80.1 69.5 24.1 35.8 49.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------