***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2012.-04.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 9999.0 4.8 7.1 0.9 59.2 58.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 92 8 100 4.2 3.9 5.9 -0.1 49.2 49.6 2.2 4.0 5.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 6.6 6.8 6.6 0.5 56.0 55.8 4.7 6.3 7.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 3.4 2.9 5.0 1.3 64.8 63.5 -0.3 1.5 3.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 5.1 4.8 5.6 1.3 64.5 63.4 1.8 3.4 4.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 4.9 6.4 5.5 3.5 85.6 82.3 0.9 2.5 4.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 93 7 100 4.1 3.9 6.0 0.1 50.6 51.0 2.2 3.9 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 2.1 2.1 4.8 2.0 71.9 70.2 -1.9 -0.2 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 44 56 100 5.9 5.6 6.0 1.3 64.0 63.1 2.5 4.2 5.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 5.7 5.4 5.0 1.4 65.7 64.7 2.5 4.0 5.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 5.4 5.2 5.5 1.6 68.1 66.6 1.9 3.5 5.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 4.9 5.2 5.5 2.3 74.7 72.6 1.0 2.7 4.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 5.1 5.7 5.8 2.8 78.4 75.9 1.1 2.8 4.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 90 10 100 5.0 4.6 4.8 -0.1 48.7 49.2 3.3 4.8 6.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 5.8 5.8 6.4 1.7 70.0 67.9 2.2 3.8 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 6.3 6.6 5.6 2.3 74.5 72.2 2.6 4.2 5.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 90 10 100 4.3 3.5 5.3 -0.5 44.7 45.6 2.3 4.0 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 2.9 3.6 4.2 1.2 63.1 62.4 1.1 2.5 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 91 9 100 4.3 4.1 6.0 0.0 50.4 50.7 2.4 4.0 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 2.0 2.1 3.5 2.1 72.4 71.0 -1.7 -0.1 1.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 4.5 5.1 6.7 0.9 60.2 59.7 2.3 4.0 5.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 3.7 2.8 5.3 -0.5 43.7 44.6 1.7 3.4 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 90 10 100 4.3 4.3 5.9 0.2 52.4 52.6 2.5 4.1 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 3.9 4.2 5.1 0.6 56.6 56.4 2.1 3.6 5.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 4.7 5.5 6.3 1.1 61.8 61.1 2.7 4.4 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 5.3 6.4 6.3 3.4 83.7 81.1 1.7 3.2 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 4.9 5.7 6.7 1.1 61.4 60.7 2.5 4.5 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 4.5 4.2 5.7 1.6 68.4 66.7 1.0 2.5 4.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 4.4 4.2 3.7 1.4 65.4 64.5 0.8 2.6 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 92 8 100 4.6 4.5 6.4 0.2 52.4 52.6 2.5 4.3 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------